How will oil prices move, and what will that do to U.S. and global stock markets? And how should investors plan their trades? 

Crude oil prices have been on the rise since trading as low as $26.05 a barrel on Feb. 11. Six of the nine major global equity averages bottomed on Feb. 11 or Feb. 12. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageI:DJI and the Dow Jones Transportation AverageI:DJT had already set their 2016 lows on Jan. 20, while China's Shanghai Composite set its low on Jan. 27.

As for oil's big price freeze by OPEC, the rebound in oil prices is not as significant as it seems. The freeze is at a high level of production, and some say that Iran will be allowed to slowly increase its production level. Here in the U.S. there's an inventory of wells ready for production if the price of a barrel of oil stays above $30. However, production from shale will likely need the price to rise above $50.

My proprietary analysis show that a price of $29.90 per barrel will remain a magnet through March, and the upside for all of 2016 should be limited to $44 a barrel. A close on Friday needs to be above $33.34 to shift the weekly technical chart to positive.

Here's today's scorecard for the major equity averages around the globe followed by their weekly chart profiles and key levels.

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Here's the daily chart for Japan's Nikkei 225.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

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The weekly chart for the Nikkei 225 is negative, with the index below its key weekly moving average of 16,984 but above its 200-week simple moving average of 14,845, which held at the 2016 low of 14,865.77 set on Feb. 12.

The weekly momentum is projected to decline to 22.33 this week, down from 26.31 on Feb. 12. The downside risk is to 11,424 by the end of 2016. Momentum scales between 00.00 and 100.00, where readings above 80.00 indicate overbought and readings below 20.00 indicate oversold. A negative weekly chart shows the stock below its key weekly moving average with weekly momentum declining below 80.00 in a trend towards 20.00.

Here's the weekly chart for China's Shanghai Composite.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

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The weekly chart for the Shanghai Composite is negative, with the index below its key weekly moving average of 3,033 but above its 200-week simple moving average of 2,619, which held at the 2016 low of 2,638 set on Jan. 27. The weekly momentum is projected to decline to 20.64 this week, down from 23.85 on Feb. 5.

Here's the weekly chart for India's Nifty 50.


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

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The weekly chart for the Nifty 50 is negative, with the index below its key weekly moving average of 7,434 but above its 200-week simple moving average of 6,884, which held at the 2016 low of 6,869 set on Feb, 12. The weekly momentum is projected to decline to 25.82 this week, down from 26.61 on Feb. 12. The downside risk is to 6,151 by the end of 2016.

Here's the weekly chart for Germany's Deutsche Boerse DAX..


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

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The weekly chart for the German DAX is negative but oversold, with the index below its key weekly moving average of 9,693 but above its 200-week simple moving average of 9,127. The index was below this average at its Feb. 11 low of 8,699.29. The weekly momentum reading is projected to decline to 16.99 this week, down from 19.22 on Feb. 12, moving deeper below the oversold threshold of 20.00. The downside risk is to 8,816 and 7,940 by the end of 2016.

Here's the weekly chart for the Dow 30 (DIA) - Get Report .


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

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The weekly chart for the Dow 30 is negative. The Dow is below its key weekly moving average of 16,479 and above its 200-week simple moving average of 15,836, after being below this key moving average at its Jan. 20 low of 15,450.56. The weekly momentum reading is projected to slip to 31.17 this week, down from 31.55 on Feb. 12. The downside risk is to 14,592 and 14,469 by the end of 2016.

Here's the weekly chart for the S&P 500 (SPY) - Get ReportI:GSPC .


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

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The weekly chart for the S&P 500 is negative. The S&P 500 is below its key weekly moving average of 1,930.6 and above its 200-week simple moving average of 1,792.8, which is below the Feb. 11 low of 1,810.1. The weekly momentum reading is projected to decline to 29.22 this week, down from 30.76 on Feb. 12. The downside risk is to 1,632.8 and 1,554.9 by the end of 2016.

Here's the weekly chart for the Nasdaq Composite  (QQQ) - Get ReportI:IXIC .


Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

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The weekly chart for the Nasdaq is negative. The Nasdaq is below its key weekly moving average of 4,586, but well above its 200-week simple moving average of 4,063 and well below its Feb. 11 low of 4,209.76. The weekly momentum reading is projected to decline to 22.86 this week, down from 26.34 on Feb. 12. At the low this index was below a key level of 4,248 in play for the remainder of the year. The downside risk is to 3,962 by the end of 2016.

Here's the weekly chart for the Dow Jones Transportation Average.


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The weekly chart for the transportation average is positive, with the average above its key weekly moving average of 7,166 and above its 200-week simple moving average of 7,159 after being well below these averages at its Jan. 20 low of 6,403.31. The weekly momentum reading is projected to rise to 26.82 up from 22.02 on Feb. 12. A key annual level of 6,926 was a magnet influencing the upside of 13.8% from the low. Another annual level of 7,569 is the upside potential for the remainder of 2016.

Here's the weekly chart for the Russell 2000 .


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The weekly chart for the Russell 2000 is negative but oversold, with the average below its key weekly moving average of 1,034.76 and below its 200-week simple moving average of 1,061.97, with the Feb. 11 low of 943.10 well below these averages. The weekly momentum reading is projected to decline to 19.60, down from 21.80 on Feb. 12, moving below the oversold threshold off 20.00. The small-cap index is trading between annual levels of 938.79 and 1,042.61, which are in play until the end of 2016.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.