NEW YORK (
) -- Coffee prices have fallen more than 50% since 2010, and you can observe this trend by looking at
iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN
This exchange-traded note seeks to replicate the returns available through an unleveraged investment in coffee futures contracts as well as the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury bills.
Charts of Coffee ETN
The first, weekly chart shows my price targets for 2013, while the second, hourly chart shows strong volume, meaning big money is slowly building a long position in coffee. The small white chart is the seasonal chart of coffee futures, which shows that prices historically rise from January through March, followed by a correction and then another rally into May.
Coffee prices are still in a down trend, but it looks as though the end is near. If you play coffee right, you could see up to a 100% return on your capital in 2013.
Coffee Futures Monthly Long-Term Chart
The following chart gives you a bird's-eye view of where coffee prices are trading.
JO Coffee ETF vs. Starbucks Share Price
Lower coffee bean prices have helped lift share prices of coffee companies such as
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
Peet's Coffee & Tea
. But cheap coffee may not be around that much longer, and weaker earnings for coffee brewers may be closer than many think.
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2013 Caffeine Conclusion
In short, I have been watching coffee prices for a bottoming pattern for months, and they now appear to be getting very close to a bottom. This could be a great trade and investment for the new year.
As for companies such as Starbucks, this development likely will not have much of an effect on the bottom line until the second half of the year, although it is something to monitor during earning seasons.
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.
Chris Vermeulen is founder of the popular trading sites www.thegoldandoilguy.com and www.ActiveTradingPartners.com. There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method. Since 2001, Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, silver, oil and stocks in both bull and bear markets.