EWG has traded between $25 and $31 for all of 2015, closing Monday at about the halfway price point of the year's low and high ($28.53). For all of 2015, EWG is up about 4%, a positive return so far in a year that has been rather difficult to find winners.
Having recently spent two weeks in Germany, I found that the overall attitude of the people was upbeat. New construction was ample enough to easily notice as was a nicely lower cost of gasoline.
Gasoline is a much more expensive commodity in Europe for a variety of reasons. Thus, any decent decline in that basis expense for the citizenry of Europe and especially Germany is a positive with ripple effects.
This trade is mostly based on EWG's technical pattern, both short and intermediate term. Technically, the one-year stochastic for EWG I read as being bullish, and that bias is supported by a slightly rising/bullish Relative Strength Index. And you might note that EWG is almost coiled at this time and price.
The trade tactic I prefer now for EWG is the bullishly biased put calendar diagonal spread.
The trade is as follows: Sell to open EWG September 30 put at $1.70 and buy to open EWG October 29 put for $1.20.
The total risk for the spread is $0.50. The suggested target to close for a gain is a bid of $1.00. The downside stop loss is the 50 cents risked.
As always, this is a guideline, and you should always stick to your trading plan and what's best for your risk/reward tolerance.
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Skip Raschke writes regularly for Options Profits. You can get his trades first and interact with him there with a free trial.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.