The stock indexes closed the week slightly higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 36.7 points, the S&P 500 gaining nearly 12 points, the Nasdaq, the big winner, gaining 119 points, and the Russell 2000 higher by 5.55 points for the week. Get ready for the markets to continue to move upward.
When stock volume increases, the volatility usually follows. The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (VXX) - Get iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN Report traded over 352 million shares for the week. This was the highest weekly (VXX) - Get iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN Report volume going back to at least early 2009. It appears that this is the beginning of more volatility in the stock market after months of low volatility that went along with low stock market volume. The weekly VXX chart that shows an uptrend that started last week and should continue as the market moves forward.
Also, it appears that the VXX is near the bottom of its weekly risk range with much room to move higher. As the VXX moves higher, stock prices should go lower.
After a relief rally from last weeks selloff, the markets seem as though they will move lower; the stock market Trend is Bearish.
All eyes will now be focused on next Sept. 21, and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates based on the incoming economic data. It has tried to talk the stock market lower with rhetoric that suggested it will raise rates, but its track record has not been good. This past week, Federal Reserve Board member Lael Brainard suggested a more dovish tone.
With the presidential election coming up and the current economic news that continues to show growth slowing, it is hard to imagine how the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates without crashing the stock market.
Shifting gears, one of the best performing sectors in 2016, gold and gold miners, continues to be in a Bullish Trend. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) - Get SPDR Gold Trust Report shows a bullish uptrend. As a matter of fact, GLD is now oversold on a weekly time frame, and, after some consolidation over the past month, should continue to move higher.
The Daily Gold Miners Bull 3x Shares (NUGT) - Get Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3x Shares Report is another extremely oversold exchange traded fund on the weekly time frame that appears to be setting up for another move higher.
It would appear that the stock market is setting up for a short term move higher over the next week or so before resuming a longer term trend lower.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author was long in NUGT.