Today the stock continues to battle heavy resistance near the $151.50 area, but once that is cleared, Big Blue could embark on quite a run. IBM bulls should be taking a more positive view of the action in the near term.
In late March, IBM's powerful run off the January/February double bottom had reached exhaustion. The stock had gained over 30% during the previous six weeks but was unable to move past last October's high. At the start of April, IBM began a much-needed consolidation pattern. This healthy, narrow price action held key support despite a massive hit back on April 19 after a disappointing earnings report. As this month opened the consolidation strengthened with the help of a higher monthly low after shares once again held support near the 200-day moving average.
Today IBM remains within its consolidation pattern, but an upside breakout may be brewing. The key in the near term will be a move past the gap resistance at $151.50. Once past this key level, the stock should have enough fresh momentum to drive shares past the 2016/April peak of $153.50.
Until then, IBM bulls should consider the stock a low-risk buy between $151 and $148. On the downside, a close back below last week's low of $144 would indicate that more sideways action is ahead before a fresh bull leg can take hold.
Disclosure: This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.