Shares of Cisco (CSCO) - Get Cisco Systems, Inc. Report were hit hard over the previous two sessions. At yesterday's low, the stock had fallen over 7.5% from last week's high. This steep slide on heavy trade drove the stock down to a very important support zone.
The stock is rebounding a bit today and is setting up as a low-risk buy for patient bulls.
Back on May 19, Cisco exploded to the upside following its third-quarter earnings report. The stock opened May 19 with a powerful breakout gap that lifted the stock over 4.5%. A week later, Cisco was trading at new 2016 highs after moving past heavy resistance near the March/April highs. By the start of June, Cisco had stalled just below the $29.50 area after gaining over 14% from the May low. Heading into the Brexit vote Cisco was tracing out a healthy consolidation pattern while remaining very near the highs.
The post-Brexit flush has pushed Cisco back down to a major support zone that includes the February high and April low near $26.90. Just above this level is the May 19 earnings-inspired breakout gap at $26.96. Also in this important zone is the stock's 200-day moving average.
In the near term, Cisco investors should consider the stock a very low-risk buy between yesterday's close of $27.30 and $26.90. On the downside, a close below the May 18 low of $26.50 would send a clear warning sign that more basing is on the way.
CSCO is one of our positions with a large international exposure, and thus benefits from a softer dollar. Of course, this means CSCO feels the pain of the stronger dollar that may only get stronger as a result of the depreciating pound and euro. That being said, we continue to like CSCO's evolving software business and appreciate the company's strong, stable dividend and shareholder-friendly buyback programs. We believe these should offer support in the coming days, but recognize that investors are focused on international exposure for now and trading could be irrational in the near term.
Disclosure: This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author was long CSCO.