You want some speculation? How about this? Pfizer (PFE) - Get Report buys Warner-Lambert (WLA) because it needs the Lipitor formulation, among others. Procter & Gamble (PG) - Get Report, which never rallied after that float of buying American Home Products (AHP) and Warner-Lambert, then buys Home Products (as we all call it on Wall Street) and buys the consumer-goods stuff from Warner-Lambert to dovetail with Richardson-Vicks.
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Procter & Gamble goes up because that move is much less dilutive than the purchase of both American Home Products and Warner-Lambert. (In other words, the company softened the market effectively when it leaked that idea to the press. Leaked? Well, I believe it because nobody was fired for that disgraceful bout of leakage, so maybe it wasn't so disgraceful.)
Warner-Lambert and American Home go up because of the prices they receive.
We have a small position in American Home (20,000 shares, which, for us, is about a quarter of a position), but I am hoping the drug stocks get clocked after the
meeting so I can buy more.
Conviction level? It would be much lower, but the key variant is the inability of Procter & Gamble to rally. If nothing were going on, this stock would be higher. It just doesn't deserve to be down here if talks were totally off.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long American Home Products. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at