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Gurus: The Message Is Clear, but Is the Vision?

Gurus say the election uncertainty might be creating distress, but the fundamental backdrop for equities remains favorable.
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Warren Buffett

is not an idiot. The Oracle of Omaha has been ridiculed in recent years for not "getting" tech, but his investing style is looking awfully smart again after recent market action.



genius seemed even more keen Monday as unsexy stocks such as


(KR) - Get Kroger Co. Report



(WLL) - Get Whiting Petroleum Corporation Report

, and

American Freightways


flourished, the latter two inspired by buyout developments. Meanwhile, growth names struggled again after


TheStreet Recommends


became the latest in the group to produce lackluster or disappointing results.

Once as low as 10,369.74, the

Dow Jones Industrial Average

closed off 0.8% to 10,517.25. Similarly, the

S&P 500

shed 1.1% to 1351.26 after trading as low as 1328.55. The

Nasdaq Composite Index

also bounced off its intraday low at 2859.39, but still closed down 2.1% to 2966.72, its first close below 3000 since Nov. 2, 1999.

For those with short memories, note the averages produced a similar performance just last

Thursday. More important than the market's proclivity for impersonating a phoenix, recall the significance that's been placed on the Comp's ability to hold above 3000 repeatedly in recent weeks. That level cracked Monday, suggesting more weakness to come -- the next major support for the index being its October 1999 lows of 2632.01, according to Ralph Acampora,

Prudential Securities

chief technical analyst.

I'd feel better about the market having reached some kind of sustainable bottom Monday if there'd been more capitulation from the gurus who've emerged to take Acampora's place in the upper terraces of gurudom.

Instead, the vast majority of gurus remain prostrate before the growth-stock altar (as do readers, judging by the emails). It's hard to blame them, given the salvation growth stocks have delivered in recent years.

Each, and in their own special way, Joe Battipaglia at


, Thomas Galvin at

Credit Suisse First Boston

, Jeffrey Applegate at

Lehman Brothers

, Christine Callies at

Merrill Lynch

and Robert Robbins at


, said essentially the same thing this week: While the election uncertainty might be creating some distress (

you don't say

) and delay the post-October, postelection, year-end rally, the fundamental backdrop for equities remains favorable.

Ironically, the lone voice of dissent this week came from Greg Smith, chief investment strategist at Pru.

"We think that in this climate the basic strategy has to be defensive," Smith wrote, and his recommended allocation of 65% equities and 35% cash reflects that view. Within equities, Smith on Monday recommended reducing the allocation in technology to 21% from 25%, adding 2% each to consumer nondurables and health care.

I was unable to reach Smith to further discuss the changes. Similarly, I couldn't reach any of the other aforementioned gurus to ask them what -- if anything -- would make them turn negative on stocks in general or growth stocks in particular when nothing to date has turned the trick.

I did, however, catch up with Thomas McManus, equity portfolio strategist at

Banc of America Securities

, who remains cautious and has long cautioned against bottom-picking in this environment.

"My sense is the news flow on earnings is going to continue to be negative for several quarters," McManus said. "The question is: When is that fully built in?"

Acknowledging studies that show stocks do better when earnings are bad because the stocks start to anticipate a turnaround, McManus contends, "Now is the time when earnings are

still good," suggesting the worst results might not emerge until the first or possibly second quarter of 2001.

Earnings growth for the S&P 500 might be flat in the first quarter of 2001, McManus forecast. The current consensus is for 10.9% growth, which, as reported

Friday, already represents a decline in expectations.

Because of that risk to both earnings and expectations, McManus believes the S&P could break 1300 and the Comp retest its October 1999 lows around 2600. The strategist thus recommends a "modest underweight" in U.S. stocks and within equities, an overweight in "economically insensitive" groups such as health care, where favorites include

Cardinal Health

(CAH) - Get Cardinal Health, Inc. Report




. (Banc of America has provided investment banking or other services to Cardinal Health in the past three years.) Similarly, he recommends financials

Freddie Mac



Fannie Mae


, consumer nondurables such as


(KMB) - Get Kimberly-Clark Corporation Report



(AVP) - Get Avon Products, Inc. Report

, plus energy/utility names

Reliant Energy

(REI) - Get Ring Energy, Inc. Report


Southern Energy



Constellation Energy



Ray of Light

Sam Ginzburg, senior managing director of equity trading at


, is currently "shorting into strength

in tech. Until we lose, that's our strategy."

But the trader acknowledges the possibility for a sharp, steep rally in the coming days and weeks because of the heavy amounts of cash on the proverbial sideline. Money market assets rose $21 billion for the week ended Nov. 8 and now total $1.8 trillion -- an 11.7% annual increase, according to the

Investment Company Institute


Ginzburg sees three potential developments that could inspire buyers. One, a resolution of the election uncertainty, regardless of the winner. Second, the

Federal Reserve

adopting a neutral bias at its policy meeting this week. Third, some positive development -- like a ceasefire -- in the Middle East.

The bad news is only the first of those three seems a realistic possibility. Worse, an election resolution seems less assured Monday after former

Secretary of State

and current



Warren Christopher

said the Gore campaign has joined a legal challenge of Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris' refusal to extend the recount beyond the original deadline of 5 p.m. EST Tuesday.

Of course, Christopher's announcement of this latest twist put a quick halt to the market's afternoon rally attempt on Monday.

Step One: Remove Bushel

Elsewhere, biotech and genomics stocks plummeted for no apparent fundamental reason -- the

Amex Biotech Index

falling 11.1%, suggesting its recent ascent may indeed have been a case of bubble-itis.

"What you're seeing is exactly the same as in other sectors: In the absence of fundamentals, valuations get so overextended there can be -- and I hate to use the word -- a crash

when people want to take money off the table before it's not there anymore," said Michael Shaoul, chief operating officer at

Oscar Gruss & Son


You could have read Shaoul's warnings about the potential biotech bubble in this column on

Nov. 2, or in this past weekend's edition of



Aaron Task chats on MarketER on Wednesday Nov. 15 at 5 p.m. EST. Join the chat via the top of's and TSC's homepage.

Aaron L. Task writes daily for In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, although he owns stock in He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He invites you to send your feedback to

Aaron L. Task.