The Brexit news saw a majority of equities dropping, but gold and silver both rallied. SPDR Gold Shares surged to more than $126 on Friday from about $120 and have since remained in a narrow range. They closed Tuesday at $125.32. The chart shows what is likely to occur next.
The consolidation range between $124 and $115 was in effect since mid-February. Only recently has the price broken above resistance. But there is no confirmation for any permanent breakout, making this latest move appear as a short-term reaction to Brexit.
The logic here is that gold will probably retreat in coming sessions. Stocks declined and now are coming back, so precious metals jumped and are now likely to retreat. With this in mind, we looked at the July 8 weekly options on SPDR Gold Shares (expiring in 9 days). The 125.50 put just after Wednesday's open was at an ask of 1.43. With trading fees added, the coast of the long put is about $152. This means that $124 per share is the break-even point and any move below that price makes this put profitable. Based on the chart and recent activity, there is a very good chance that price will move below $124, which has been resistance for several weeks. The appearance of the last four sessions looks like a prediction of a retreat back into range.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Besides blogging atTheStreet.com,Michael Thomsett alsoblogs at theSeeking Alphaand several other sites.He has been trading options for 35 years, and has also published a paper in the current issue of the Journal of Technical Analysis - link at JOTA issue 69 -- this paper challenges commonly held beliefs about market efficiency and poses a trading system that can beat the market. His new book can be viewed at tinyurl.com/z44kzlu