Europe's got enough clout to make the first move up fail. Yes, there will be a move up and it will be on the

Nasdaq

. We don't want to bite. We will buy the second move after the failure of the first move up.

Why game it so tightly? Because you have to be ready on these big down days to avoid the fake outs that will come as mutual funds put their weekend monies in. That's the money that comes in every weekend -- week in and week out.

Why even buy at all? Because Japan slipping into a recession is actually the first pressure on the

Fed

TheStreet Recommends

to

not

tighten that may make things palatable in the future for stocks. Remember, the Fed is trying to brake the economy. (And break the economy -- LOL!). If Japan slips back into a recession, the Fed will be less likely to continue to tighten aggressively.

That's bullish, not bearish. In the cloud of negativity that now hangs over the market this morning, don't forget that distinction. You won't hear it anywhere else.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at

jjcletters@thestreet.com.