Hey, how many viewers do we have watching "TheStreet.com" TV show? Well, if you do watch, I need your help. It seems
have staked out the shirt/tie, but no jacket, look.
I, on the other hand, have gone with the shirt/blazer, but no tie, look. My question: Do I add the tie, giving me the complete outfit? I only have about a million from my
days sitting in the closet and, humbly, some pretty nice ones. (Which implies, of course, that I picked
of them out myself!) On the other hand, I kind of like the casual elegance niche I've staked out so far.
Anyway, feel free to chime in. Votes will be tallied. Heads counted. Polls polled. Results, next week!
Got a vote? Got a question? Hey, I'm your man at
firstname.lastname@example.org, so send away.
Gary, Hello. I was hoping to get your analysis of E*Trade (EGRP) short term. Does the 30 level look like it will hold or is this headed for 20? I am not long but am considering it for a trade. Jay Patel
Taking a Bite of Sara Lee
Hi Gary, I nibbled on Sara Lee (SLE) when it hit 23 and have since been left wondering if I made the right decision. What is your take on the stock and what, in your opinion, might sway favor the other way? Thanks. Brian Ellerman
Gary, How about taking a look at the chart of Rowan (RDC) ? Denny Runck
Sir Gary, I am an avid reader of your column, and think that you are doing one terrific job. I think your column is the main reason I jump to TheStreet.com as soon as I am online. Here is a question: I found out that one of the top market timers in Timers Digest uses cycles to time the entry and exit of the S&P500. What is your view about market cycles and could you recommend a book on this subject? Thanks, Young Lee
Young, how could I resist someone referring to me as "Sir"!
Regarding cycles, I am in two different camps. I do feel the market runs in cycles. This is because, at its most basic, emotions alternate between greed and fear. And therefore, prices fluctuate to accommodate these emotions. The "cycle" of the Internet stocks is an excellent example, as pricing seems to have no relationship to fundamentals, but a perfect relationship to investors' emotions.
That said, I am uncertain if there is a definable, repeatable cycle one could use to time the market. I suppose with my own trading, whereby I trade predominantly longs or shorts depending on which side has the most candidates, I am using a variation of cycle timing. But, I'm sure you're thinking of the larger picture.
Therefore, I point you to the excellent resource of
www.traderspress.com. There you can find a plethora of books on market cycles, including a number on the Elliott Wave, and various offshoots. I can't recommend any specifically, both because I'm not that familiar with the subject, and also because from what I have read, I've found nothing I can hang my hat on.
Still a Believer
Gary, As a former owner of Disney (DIS) - Get Reportstock that I sold earlier this year in the high 30s, I am still a Disney believer. What are your thoughts about the chart support pattern for Disney and do you believe that there is still some downside left? Thanks John Ellison
Hi Gary: As a new investor I believed TA to be garbage. Lo and behold, after reading your column for a while, I am a BELIEVER. I just noticed Qwest Communications (QWST) at 29 1/2 after taking it off my wish list a month ago due to valuation. Can you tell me what is going on there? Thanks, D. Ethridge
Up and Down
Hi Gary! I was wondering if you'd take a look at Pogo Producing (PPP) and give me your thoughts. What caught my eye was the declining volume and narrowing trading range following the run from 12 to 21. Thank you. Dave Crill
Damn the Torpedoes
Gary, what's up with Northeast Optic (NOPT) ? Up 300%, pulls back 25% and it's off to the races again on declining volume. Shorted it at 37 with expectations to cover at 27. Now it's back at 37 on declining volume. I'm patient but am not stupid. I was looking for about a 50% retracement. Scott J. Mccray
Gary B. Smith is a freelance writer who trades for his own account from his Maryland home using technical analysis. At time of publication, he held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Smith writes five technical analysis columns for TheStreet.com each week, including Technician's Take, Charted Territory and TSC Technical Forum. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback at