Gary Gets a Gut Feeling

Meanwhile, the Prom Queens rock on and The Chartman does the charts.
Publish date:

OK, gut feeling time. I don't think the rally will hold.

There, I said it. I'm on record. It just won't last, and I think if you held during the washout, now might be a good time to lighten up.

Need a chart, though, to get you thinking? OK, here's the same chart I'm going to use for the "" on

Fox News Channel

this weekend.

Now, what if I'm wrong, and we take out that resistance? Then it'll take me about two seconds to admit it, cover my shorts, and go long.

So, in the space of 100 words or so, you can now see the difference between Technical Analysis and trading. The first two paragraphs are TA, of course. The third? That's how I'm trading it. So, prepare those slings, arrows and/or kudos, depending on which way we go!

And speaking of kudos, I have to give a big one to that ultrastudly

Prom Queen lineup. As of noon yesterday, they were still up over 11% since our kickoff on Feb. 22. Talk about battling back from Tuesday's adversity, why, this might be the greatest comeback since Tom Dolan's recent 800-meter freestyle win at the U.S. Nationals! (Sorry, I couldn't resist the oh-so-esoteric swim reference.)

Once again, this performance compares very favorably with the

Nasdaq 100

(QQQ) - Get Report

, which is inching along at 3.5% since the same date. The big difference? We shucked


(MSFT) - Get Report

just before the going got rough. Yeah, we were a bit early, but it sure saved us some dough.

But enough self-congratulations. Let's look at some charts that, uh, have certainly changed a bit over the last week or so.

First up, a prediction and a request from

Jim Otto

at the Duke University Medical Center:

Gary: Two things. First, you won the first battle with Cramer on the biotechs this week, but I'm betting on him to win the war. They will probably twist back and forth for the first part of April, and roar into May on news coming out of the American Society of Clinical Oncology meeting and with the probable announcement of the completion of the Human Genome Project. They'll probably then fall off somewhat over the summer (but at least a 20% to 30% higher level than they currently hold), although HIV-related stocks will probably do well in July (huge meeting, with reports on some new classes of drugs), and then a roar will begin again in the fall (with loads of news coming out ), which will culminate in the Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) - Get Report knocking out and holding new highs in November and December. You heard it here first. Second, a chart request for Elan (ELN) , a drug-delivery company which is transforming itself into either a big biotech company or a small pharmaceutical company, depending on how you look at it. What do you make of its chart? In honor of the Easter season, maybe you could nickname it Peter Rabbit ... high volume hop, consolidate, hop, consolidate, hop ... Jim Otto

OK, Jim's on record, and I'll have my take on Biotech HOLDRs on the TV show this weekend. Now, let's look at Elan.

Next up is

Rufus Jabo's

request for



. Now, how did Rufus work his way in? He laid the best guilt trip on me in quite a while.

Gary: This is my n-th time requesting your take on Macromedia from you. But my mom told me that patience is a virtue, so I'll keep trying.

My friend, Paul (not his real name) works for


(BVSN) - Get Report

, and wanted to know what he should do with some stock he acquired from the company. Paul, I can't tell you that, but we can look at the chart.

Best attempt at painting the scene this week? This is from

Daune Grassbaugh


Gary: I am just a lowly cow-milking dairy farmer, who lives in the shadows of the legendary Kenyon College, and I was wondering how 'bout a chart on S1 (SONE) ? Duane Grassbaugh

And finally the most requested stock of the week? A tie between

JDS Uniphase




(RMBS) - Get Report


We can't go anywhere, though, without my email of the week. This one addressed my recent April Fools'


Gary: Not funny at all! You're merely accentuating how this is all just a silly game. Incidentally, charting is worst sic than Tarot card reading. Tell me if any of your charts delineating straight lines to the heavens for literally every biotech, tech, Linux, B2B, Ponzi scheme predicted their immediate one-day turnarounds and swift crashes. Please employ better judgement or you will be wiped out. The trend is your friend until it ends, Wesley Belvedere

And, well, there you have it!

That puts the finishing touches on another week. A week where, darn it, I should have seen that crash coming. Reason? Blame it on

Venus Williams

. She just might give up tennis because, according to her father, who was quoted

last week

, "She has some unbelievable investments paying off very well. She's in a great position right now."

No, no update lately. If we see Venus back on the court, though, I guess that'll be update enough.

Gary B. Smith is a freelance writer who trades for his own account from his Maryland home using technical analysis. At time of publication, he held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Smith writes five technical analysis columns for each week, including Technician's Take, Charted Territory and TSC Technical Forum. While he cannot provide Investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback at