Gary B. Smith's June 15 Yahoo! Chat - TheStreet

Gary B. Smith chatted on Yahoo! on Thursday, Jun. 15, at 5 p.m. EST. As with all chats, this transcript is unedited.

laura_the_street:

Gary B. is here and we are ready to go.

gsmith4:

Yes, I am here, and before I start, I urge you to start reading

RealMoney.com

tomorrow. This is where my good stuff will first appear. Also, I suppose where my bad stuff will first appear!

twinsoulsita asks:

Hi Gary, in your last column on TSC you wrote about a possible "nasty diamond formation appearing in the

Dow

." How did you identify 7,500 as a possible target for the Dow if it's actually a diamond?

gsmith4:

Oh, I just used someone else's target. 7,500, 75,000, who cares!

marcel_y_richard asks:

RFMD: sell volume is high!!! Do you think it'll break through support at 90? When would RFMD be a buy?

gsmith4:

Gosh, in a death spiral right now. Wouldn't buy it until it broke back through 100.

jeffgro1 asks:

Gary, from a technical analysis standpoint how would you have predicted the fall in financials today (i.e., JPM, MEL, AXP)?

gsmith4:

If you look back a few days ago, JPM broke down pretty sharply and then moved sideways. Remember: Trends usually continue, not reverse after congestion.

dguengerich asks:

Hey Gary, what do you get when you put your oars into the chart of

Comverse Tech

(CMVT)? How about a near-term target for a fellow rower? Thanks, Duane.

gsmith4:

Hey, let me remind you, I am

still

ranked 12th in the world amongst old farts. (But 11 is

way

ahead of me) In any event, CMVT is looking mighty good: Reeling out those 1:25 500s and looking good for $100.

marcel_y_richard asks:

PUMA: Broke out on good volume, but where to now after the pullback? -- Long PUMA.

gsmith4:

I guess I kind of like it here. Maybe wait for that little downtrend to be broken, and then it looks good for $45.

banshee962 asks:

Gary, what do you see when you look at CMRC? (I need to balance Cramer, here.) ;-)

gsmith4:

I like it. Does he? You can never tell!!

Yahaol asks:

Do you think QCOM is a good buy at this level?

gsmith4:

No, a good short.

boogerb891 asks:

Gary, please chart INKT and your thoughts.

gsmith4:

Looking way weak. Maybe if it holds right here, it might be okay, but too risky.

meanme_99 asks:

what do you think of MCRE???

gsmith4:

Going back to $6.

jeffgro1 asks:

What is your take on AOL from a technical analyst standpoint?

gsmith4:

Hey that's the only standpoint I know. In any event, I can't get excited about it until it moves out of that downtrend.

armani4play asks:

Is this the summer rally?

gsmith4:

You know, I've been betting on that ever since the gap up. But, that darn congestion is getting annoying. But, yes, think we go higher.

marcel_y_richard asks:

When a stock rises near resistance how do you decide to sell or hold?

gsmith4:

Oh, I almost always sell at least part of my position.

RHAALA asks:

Hi Gary! Is SUNW forming an ascending wedge and isn't that bearish?

gsmith4:

That one is tricky. Yeah, it does kind of look like a wedge. That said, it also looks to be breaking up. Conclusion: I'm more bullish than bearish on it.

Sosantoso asks:

Gar, each position you take is 10% of your total buying power. That means you can only do a max of 10 trades at any given time. Is my reading and math correct?

gsmith4:

It's actually closer to equity / 20. That gives me 40 positions.

highflyer12345 asks:

What so you think is really going on with NBTY?

gsmith4:

Someone emailed me on that one this morning. I told him it looked like a good short. Wish I had taken it!

twinsoulsita asks:

Gary, what do you think of POG? Looks like a solid uptrend ...

gsmith4:

Rocket ship.

armani4play asks:

Are the banks and brokerages done for a while?

gsmith4:

No, I still think they're moving sideways more than down.

Yahaol asks:

How much downside WCOM still have?

gsmith4:

At least to $35.

merker_9 asks:

MCOM still like it over 30?

gsmith4:

Still looks good!

Sosantoso asks:

Gar, my port has just gone nowhere for the last three weeks. Not making or losing any money. I'm tired, what should I do? Take a vacation? ... But you know that pop is coming.

gsmith4:

Yeah, I think a pop is coming. But, it's times like this you really need to sit tight and be patient. Of course, if you're just plain tired, then definitely

do

take a vacation.

armani4play asks:

Will "Citrix" ever come back?

gsmith4:

Not for a long, long time ...

marcel_y_richard asks:

Where do you think SDLI will go from here?

gsmith4:

$300.

Yahaol asks:

Hi, How about AMD?

gsmith4:

Had its shot. Wouldn't touch it now until a new high.

twinsoulsita asks:

Gary, what's your take on DTE? A fuel cell co. looking in an uptrend!

gsmith4:

After 35 I'm a buyer.

merker_9 asks:

APC, still a hold? -- Long APC

gsmith4:

Well, it refuses to give ground, so I'd be in.

tallisman222 asks:

Gary ,what is the "recent low volume" telling you?

gsmith4:

That this sideways congestion is playing out perfectly for a big move ... hopefully up.

bulltotheend asks:

Hi Gary, love

TheStreet.com

and looking forward to

RealMoney

! What's your read on BRCD and EXDS? Thanks!

gsmith4:

EXDS looks like it's ready to ramp; same with BRCD.

twinsoulsita asks:

Gary, how do you like INTC right now?

gsmith4:

Uh, yeah. It's okay here. It's like a lot of Nas stocks: moving sideways, getting ready to go up ... or down.

armani4play asks:

Any stopping EMC?

gsmith4:

See tomorrow's column! (Big move, but risky right now.)

split_stock asks:

Hi Gary, I like your columns, but I think TA is mostly voodoo. What can you tell me to convince me otherwise?

gsmith4:

Up 377% YTD.

revo asks:

Your strategies include trendlines, direction, and volume. Any other things to pay detailed attention to?

gsmith4:

Only congestion, support and resistance.

bulltotheend asks:

Gary, recently you did a chart on INSP and VERT. Both seemed to have hit double bottoms. Are they good from a technical standpoint? Thanks again!

gsmith4:

They are what I call, neutral: strong lately; weak overall.

armani4play asks:

Is

AT&T

a good short still?

gsmith4:

I would only short it if it made another nasty move down. Could very well be putting in a bottom here.

bergeron04070 asks:

Any new tweaks that we might want to know about with regard to tc-2000 scans?

gsmith4:

No, I'm still using the same scans I've always used. (The top secret ones I leave to myself!)

WGrimme asks:

Today we had contradictory opinions on QCOM. What do you think about this stock?

gsmith4:

Hate it as a long.

merker_9 asks:

Where do you see ADCT heading?

gsmith4:

much higher.

Yahaol asks:

What do you think about NOK and ERICY?

gsmith4:

NOK needs to regain momentum, as it's hit a brick wall; ERICY looks even worse.

banshee962 asks:

What does the B2B sector (or whatever they call it these days) look like to you? Yes, no ... maybe so?

gsmith4:

Totally stock dependent. Give me a specific.

bulltotheend asks:

Gary, is there any hope for CMGI?????

gsmith4:

Sure. If it can hold at the $54 level, it could definitely go back to the $70s.

armani4play asks:

What is your favorite sector going forward?

gsmith4:

I still like high tech right now. Poised for a huge move one way or the other. Either way, I'm a player.

pa34flyr asks:

Gary, your take on AKAM?

gsmith4:

I am Akamized! (whatever that means.) I like it right now. Love it over $100.

glcos asks:

Do you strictly adhere to selling after a 6% gain?

gsmith4:

Mostly!

TJMIS asks:

Broadvision

... any up again?

gsmith4:

This chart looks exactly like AKAM, only half the price. So, it should go up from here.

armani4play asks:

Do you believe that AMZN will make it?

gsmith4:

Fundamentally? Yep, I'm still a buyer ... of their books onsite.

Yahaol asks:

Gary, do you think there will be a earning run-up for YHOO?

gsmith4:

You've been listening to

Lashinsky

too much! Anyway, there might be a run, but don't know if earnings related.

stujohns asks:

Gary: How do you differentiate between E&P or oil service stocks which are mostly tracking together toward their highs in 1997 or 1998?

gsmith4:

I wouldn't be playing in that patch right now.

marcel_y_richard asks:

How did you come to leaving your J.O.B. to trade full time from home -- what was the deciding factor? Financially when would you recommend (or not) this move?

gsmith4:

For a long answer, see my 5/3/99 column, which contains a link to a column on that very subject. The deciding factor was that I honestly felt I could make enough to support my family. At that point, though, we had a healthy sum already in the bank and pensions.

gsmith4:

... so I was in good shape. But, in my trading account, I think I had about $200K at the time.

cork1972 asks:

JDSU?

gsmith4:

Looks like it's dying to see its old highs. Hard to fathom!

tylerbain asks:

Gary -- what books on TA would you recommend to learn more about TA, but still fairly easy to read?

gsmith4:

Easy to read: Look for Jiler's book on TA

How Charts Can Help You in the Stock Market (See my 5/3/99 column.)

clippers99 asks:

How long have you been trading now, and have you always been a technician?

gsmith4:

I actually started out as a pure fundamentalist and migrated away from the "evil side." Been trading about 15 years or so.

merker_9 asks:

A still a good short?

gsmith4:

If it breaks from the $64 level it is.

clippers99 asks:

Are your swim kids aiming for the 2004 summer games?

gsmith4:

Very unlikely. However, Diana would be 15 at that time, prime time for female breaststrokers. But ... I just think she's going to run a bit shy on overall athletic ability and size.

Sosantoso asks:

Gar, why are your kids doing swimming? Why don't you get them to do things like ... golf, or tennis ... you know, the things that make big bucks. What's that swimming motivation?

gsmith4:

Actually, they did just start playing golf last year ... and pretty much hate it. The other reason: It's tough to get kids to do any kind of regular exercise. Swimming fills that bill.

merker_9 asks:

Any opinion on PPRO?

gsmith4:

If you want, now could be the time to buy.

stench_2000 asks:

Do you believe with free internet phone, that voice chat and things of that nature will be charged soon?

gsmith4:

Absolutely not. I certainly wouldn't pay.

banshee962 asks:

Back to the B2B sector ... the specific stock is TIBX.

gsmith4:

Okay, good one, Bansh. TIBX is doing that sideways thing like just about every other tech stock. I think up from here, though.

cork1972 asks:

Gary, view of BEAS?

gsmith4:

Finally one stock that

has

sprung up. Looking real good right now.

stevenlit asks:

Any thoughts on NURM?

gsmith4:

Wow! That is one obscure stock! Like it though, but very thin.

pa34flyr asks:

Gary,

Ford

broke support. Is it too late to get in short?

gsmith4:

Yep. This a.m. was the time.

armani4play asks:

Is

Cabletron

forming a good base here?

gsmith4:

I think it's forming more of a triangle at this point. So, it could go up

or

down.

willamiii_1999 asks:

If a stock you own tanks and then runs into congestion, as NEOF did when it moved from 13 to 7.5, what should you do if you're long in it?

gsmith4:

get out.

revo asks:

What about AWRE?

gsmith4:

Held its ground today. But, the kind of stock I'd only buy with a buy stop: make it show strength.

armani4play asks:

How do you see gold stocks like ABX doing?

gsmith4:

They're not looking bad. But, not sure how much further they can run.

bneren_1999 asks:

A lot of favorable comments on ATML's fundamentals -- how do you like it technically?

gsmith4:

It's okay here. Again ... I'm waiting for 99% of these tech stocks to make a big move up or down.

gsmith4:

Likely.

Yahaol asks:

Gary, do you think there will be some window-dressing this quarter? It's near ends.

gsmith4:

Likely.

stujohns asks:

Do you have a way to work the mid-trading range volatility? Can you isolate a few with regular patterns and exploit the repetition?

gsmith4:

I think I can, yes. That's essentially how I trade.

split_stock asks:

Which do you like better: CSCO or NT?

gsmith4:

NT has the stronger chart, but is more extended. Still, gotta go with NT.

cork1972 asks:

View of LSI &TXN?

gsmith4:

One more good day from LSI and this could fly; TXN? See my comments on almost every other tech stock.

tylerbain asks:

Why do you believe that JDSU getting to its highs is hard to fathom -- Technical or Fundamental reasons?

gsmith4:

Valuation reasons, I guess!

WGrimme asks:

ICGE a pick on the current level?

gsmith4:

Too risky for me.

revo asks:

What about SCMR?

gsmith4:

See TXN, AKAM, etc.!

armani4play asks:

Will AOL be the premier internet company some day?

gsmith4:

Isn't it already?

pa34flyr asks:

G, to me it seems that all one needs would be price and volume. Do you get deep into things like the Elliott Wave and all the stuff that you read about each night in TC2000?

gsmith4:

Honestly, I appreciate their commentary, but I skip over anything that talks about someone else's trading systems! No, I'm Senor KISS!

marcel_y_richard asks:

Gary, do you spend time during the trading day searching for breakouts -- buying/shorting then, or do you wait for the day's close?

gsmith4:

EOD only.

merker_9 asks:

CY a buy long over 45?

gsmith4:

Not for me. A nasty drop yesterday makes it look more shortable than anything else.

willamiii_1999 asks:

Do you locate breakouts simply by searching on volume or are there other techniques you use.

gsmith4:

Volume alone.

minkmaster555 asks:

No action on SBL?

gsmith4:

Whopper move today. This should move to a new high.

armani4play asks:

Any thought on MSFT?

gsmith4:

A pretty nice looking bowl. I like it here.

revo asks:

What about RETK?

gsmith4:

RETCH.

stevenlit asks:

How do you decide how much to invest? The same all the time? A percentage of some total?

gsmith4:

Equity / 20 for each position. So, you know, about $1 Milliion per trade!

willamiii_1999 asks:

When a stock you own forms a base should you stay and ride it out or invest your money in something else?

gsmith4:

I stay unless I have more enticing trades to take ... which I normally do.

revo asks:

Would u get in now to GLW? Or leave it be?

gsmith4:

I'd probably pass. Could move to $260, but probably not worth the risk.

merker_9 asks:

I miss the TV show, are you going to be back on TV?

gsmith4:

Magic 8 balls says "probably."

revo asks:

DELL at this point. Does it look like a good short? Looks like hitting resistance.

gsmith4:

It is right near the downtrend line, so yeah, it might be worth it.

willamiii_1999 asks:

What technical search engine do you use?

gsmith4:

I use the very fine Worden Bros. TC/2000.

pa34flyr asks:

Guess seeing some of the more powerful stocks break out of their congestion could be a signal of more good things to come?

gsmith4:

Oh, most definitely.

armani4play asks:

Suppose we go up now. When will we fill the 3584 gap on the comp.

gsmith4:

Maybe never. Who says ever gap has to be filled. You've been reading too much Jon Hoenig!

revo asks:

What do you say about RMBS?

gsmith4:

Yet another tech stock waiting to make a big move.

armani4play asks:

Do you like

Verisign

?

gsmith4:

Right here, I don't.

clippers99 asks:

Who do you like in the

US Open

?

gsmith4:

Ah: I'd be nuts not to go with

Tiger

. But ... I think

Mickelson

gets my nod!

laura_the_street:

What about the

US Open

in Flushing Meadows? Who do you like there?

gsmith4:

Boy, I'd normally take

Sampras

in a heartbeat, but he's having a rough start this year. Maybe

Agassi

, but he's not playing any better. Therefore, gotta go with ...

Venus Williams

!

gsmith4:

And ... that's a wrap. Read

RealMoney

tomorrow...because if you don't then I'm

out of a job

!

laura_the_street:

Thanks for joining us this afternoon.

laura_the_street:

Join us next month on Yahoo!

gsmith4:

Great questions, and a good time. Many thanks to Laura who just keeps getting better and better ... even if she did think

Serena Williams

is the US Open fav!