Gary B. Smith Chats on Yahoo!, Feb. 17

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Gary B. Smith chatted on Yahoo! on Thursday, Feb. 17, at 5 p.m. EST. As with all chats, this transcript is unedited.

laura_the_street:

Ok , we're ready to go!

gsmith4:

I am here, I am ready, I am rarin' to go. So, don't be shy, don't be bashful, and fire away!

majorguns asks:

Gary, according to the chart, where is EXLN going to be in 3-6 months from now?

gsmith4:

3 to 6 months? Wow, that's stretching me. Okay, I say $50 by then.

nlo_99 asks:

What do you think of Celera?

gsmith4:

Is that XLA? Ouch. To the moon, Alice!

jeffreybarry asks:

Why the deal from DZTK?

gsmith4:

I'll tell you, it's about to burst and I think upwards.

lufml72 asks:

Should we be looking again this year at huge returns on the Nasdaq while the Dow languishes?

gsmith4:

Yeah, I think so, so far anyway. I mean no one seems to want those fuddy duddy dow stocks.

llbeannj asks:

Hello Gary! After the Time Warner announcement AOL stock price has dropped a good percentage... I personally think that buying now will be a solid long term investment! Any comments or sugesstions on when to buy or why not to buy AOL?

gsmith4:

Okay, good question. I originally loved AOL and thought it could get to 100 by May. In looking lately though, I think the juice is gone from it. Personally, I'd look elsewhere.

StevenDCooper asks:

Long on exln in at 3.65 now 21. Can you give a target price?

gsmith4:

See above: $50 I think.

sportingchris1_1999 asks:

What is your long term outlook on XRX?

gsmith4:

Poor, unless they rename themselves, XRX.biotech.

lufml72 asks:

Will DCLK ever recover from the FCC probe??

gsmith4:

Uh, looks like a good short to me....

lufml72 asks:

Is B2B really the future and what companies are the beneficiaries??

gsmith4:

Boy, a fundamental question, so I'm on shaky ground. But, since my sweet wife is IN that industry, let's just say I think it rocks!!

waf6894 asks:

Is Enron the next Qualcomm story?

gsmith4:

Don't know about that, but the stock has traded beautifully lately.

lufml72 asks:

Which sector in the market would you avoid this year and which one would you be putting money in? Thanks

gsmith4:

Avoid: retail; Money in: biotech.

nlo_99 asks:

What's the take on Apple for the year?

gsmith4:

Been moving sideways for awhile. It it clears, say 120, then it's a go. Otherwise, I'd steer clear.

BHSDallas asks:

What is happening with US Air and that sector?

gsmith4:

Transports look pretty dead.

laura_the_street:

With the recent moves in INSI, do you think it has the potential to move into the teens by march?

gsmith4:

Teens by March? How about the teens by Feb!

lufml72 asks:

Why is Ariba so hot lately and what are its growth prospects??

gsmith4:

Why? You'd have to ask someone who knows. Chart looks strong though.

nlo_99 asks:

Do you think investing in Linux companies is up and coming?

gsmith4:

Nope. That I'd avoid.

lufml72 asks:

Are the AOL's and AMZN's of this world history??

gsmith4:

History? No. But, not where the mo-mo money is going lately.

lufml72 asks:

Still bullish on the fiber optic makers like JDSU??

gsmith4:

Yep

jcrewguy1999 asks:

Hi Gary- As an 18 year old college student, what do you feel is my best option: straight stocks, mutual funds, or none?

gsmith4:

Honestly, I'd either buy a few blue chip stocks MSFT or CSCO, or go with a Mutual fund.

logar11 asks:

What about TSE stocks likeVENGF that are amalgamating 10-15 internet and tech stocks... is that the next phase of the NASDAQ???

gsmith4:

No, I think the next phase is still biotech.

NickTix asks:

Long and short on Nortel Networks (NT)?

gsmith4:

Long, and I am long NT!

lufml72 asks:

Are online brokers' stock dead meat??

gsmith4:

Not dead, but not where I want to be.

nlo_99 asks:

Is Biotech going to beat the internet and wireless?

gsmith4:

Don't know long term. For the short term, I'd say so.

parisgirl_1985 asks:

What is the best possible time to buy the DOW?

gsmith4:

Never, in my book.

ashleyiii asks:

Gary, where is a good entry point for DIGX?

gsmith4:

Ha! Cannot comment on that one, since my wife is an Exec there. Let's just say I love the company and the stock has been performing very well.

yeowwwwww asks:

Gary, ever look at ASTN? It's got a nice 7 month cup and handle.

gsmith4:

Well, just looked. Looks broken as of today. Sorry.

tjschill asks:

EGRP was one that you were very high on, now where is a good re-entry??

gsmith4:

Ah, one of my big boners. Wouldn't touch it now.

lufml72 asks:

Any interesting plays overseas??

gsmith4:

Don't really know that market, other than if I trade an ADR.

jmgn2 asks:

What type of stocks usually perform best in a bear market?

gsmith4:

You know, we'd use to say defensive stuff like supermarkets. Now, I think it's defensive stuff like...high tech!

laura_the_street:

The biotech sector seems to be skyrocketing right now. What do you think of CBMI? Where do you think it'll be by March?

gsmith4:

By March. Well, it needs a pullback between now and then. But, this stock could do ANYTHING.

tjschill asks:

What are your fave three tech charts right now?

gsmith4:

Can I include biotech? If so, I like CRA, XLA (with a pullback after today) and INCY and/or BBH.

sweatin_bullets asks:

Gary, if a chart meets all your criteria for shorting, will you still short the stock even if there are no news releases to indicate the reason for the sudden price drop? If so, isn't that excessively risky?

gsmith4:

Actually, that's the BEST time to go short. It usually means something is ABOUT to come out that's nasty!!

sportingchris1_1999 asks:

What is your long and short term outlook on BUYX?

gsmith4:

Impossible to say. Been trading for all of 5 days.

jeffreybarry asks:

What about AMZN, they have their fingers in lots of pies, ie Kozmo?

gsmith4:

See my col on Sat for an AMZN update. Doesn't look too tasty to me.

tjschill asks:

Gary, great stuff. What are thoughts on a good entry for AWRE, now that it has broken its lower trendline??

gsmith4:

Today would have been great after yesterdays, pullback. (can't believe I missed it!) Now, though, you have to wait for it to come back a bit.

sideout012 asks:

Have you heard of AVXT, where do you think cancer research companies will go????

gsmith4:

Boy, I like that chart. Super looking!

lufml72 asks:

Do you still like YHOO ??

gsmith4:

Yep, and am long the stock.

get_rich_and_retire_early asks:

How can I "sell the top" more accurately? What kind of tools can I use to facilitate that?

gsmith4:

Well...you can't. Best bet, at least for me: take my chunk out of the middle!

wsushockers_1999 asks:

Should I buy harmonic lightwaves?

gsmith4:

Chart still looks strong, but can't afford anymore drops.

tjschill asks:

As a technician, do you buy into "charting the major indices, or is that unworkable (no offense to Meisler) -- looking instead to individual stock charts?

gsmith4:

I'll tell you. I do look at the indices as a reference. But, what works better is just to look at all the strong and weak candidates and get a feel for the market that way.

sargeswife2000 asks:

What is your opinion on the communication situation, what's good right now?

gsmith4:

Wirless. As an example, I am long vstr.

laura_the_street:

When analyzing an individual stock chart, is a rapidly increasing stock price, along with a significant increase in volume, an indication of the stock forming a new base? Is it safe to assume that the stock has many new buyers at higher prices?

gsmith4:

Actually, that scenario is a stock ready to blowoff. What I want is a stock that has ONE increase in price and volume, so I can jump on..and then off with a profit.

lufml72 asks:

Are NOK and Ericsson still screaming buys???

gsmith4:

I am long NOK, but as a long term play. ERICY is okay. But, just okay.

threetablesbeach asks:

What do you think about idc?

gsmith4:

Gee, another stock I am long. Still like it here.

sportingchris1_1999 asks:

Is now a good time to buy JCP or TOM?

gsmith4:

Not if you want to make money.

blueeyeddevil25 asks:

Gary what are your thoughts on cisco systems?

gsmith4:

Love it. See my col this Monday.

logar11 asks:

What about IRSN???? It seems that the old president of Kodak walked over there and has taken over. How does it look to you???? They have made a great advance in digital cameras.

gsmith4:

Not a bad entry point right here. Need a tight stop though.

tjschill asks:

Gary, have you tried the new Callawy (no position) X-14 irons, and if not you owe it to yourself-- theyre unbelievable(3 handicap)

gsmith4:

Ha! I have custom made John Riley's since 1996! GBS: 2 handicap....and can't play to it!!

ronfer2 asks:

Gary, I bought BBH as mentioned Saturday and am I glad. How about a few individual flyers?

gsmith4:

So, you want a few tips, huh? Well, see above for stocks I am long. Love biotech, but be careful!!

nlo_99 asks:

What about life cell LIFC?

gsmith4:

Where do you guys get these low priced stocks? Chart looks fine, but needs to rest a bit.

goldrush28 asks:

Will visx come back?

gsmith4:

Yeah, maybe. But, I'd look elsewhere.

rojt88 asks:

XLA is making a great run..any comments?

gsmith4:

Yeah, this thing is a missle! Ironically, could go higher even after today's moon shot.

lufml72 asks:

Can AMD finally recover and stay profitable ??

gsmith4:

yeah, chart looks fine. Poised to move!

tjschill asks:

Still predicting NASDAQ 5000 by May, and what about a "correction" near term?

gsmith4:

Hey, only 450 more points to go. Correction? Hmmm, not sure. Chart looks very strong right now...

bledsoe_sucks asks:

Where does CMRC have to close above to break its downtrend? Thanks

gsmith4:

Broke it two days ago I think.

fluffnpuff39 asks:

Is clorox ever going to move?

gsmith4:

Well, it is near a base. But boy, dullsville!

falcomex asks:

Hi Gary...I bought LVLT when it broke out at about 121 ...but it's drifted back down and I see support at 109 to 110....have any opinion on this chart?

gsmith4:

I have an opinion on ALL charts. Stock has drifted, but vol has dried up. I still like it just fine.

hsun7 asks:

Please revisit the chart for oracle. Thanks

gsmith4:

ANOTHER stock I am long. Are you guys peeking on my spreadsheet. Anyway, chart still looks strong. I hope!

sportingchris1_1999 asks:

Where do you see box makers going in the next year and which companies should you buy in that sector?

gsmith4:

If Dell doesn't look good, and it doesn't, I wouldn't bother with that sector at all.

lufml72 asks:

Is BEAS a long - term winner???

gsmith4:

long term? Who knows. Short term? Already is and looks like it will continue.

ray_ray_88 asks:

Where do you think etys is headed?

gsmith4:

Maybe, just maybe a bottom here. Certainly a good, low risk, buy.

laura_the_street:

Gary, do you trade options??

gsmith4:

I have in the past. Don't now. Always screw up that time decay stuff!

bigcat567_1999 asks:

Gary, Thanks for chatting. Do you think JDSU chart is still intact? What point do you think 210-215 becomes resistance? Thanks

gsmith4:

I think JDSU is back. Should cut through the mid-220's momentarily.

bledsoe_sucks asks:

What's a good price to try and buy NTAP at? Thanks

gsmith4:

Toughie on ntap. A good time was 4 days ago. Can't find a low risk entry now, though.

falcomex asks:

Today I pulled up a bunch of biotech charts.....lot's of them have doubled in just a week.....I don't see any pattern here to trade except up.....do you think that buying biotech here is chasing/speculating....? or any biotechs that look good on the charts to you?

gsmith4:

I think CRA still looks fine. Coming out of a base (note: I am long CRA)

chartman_gs asks:

Do you like any of the oils service stocks' charts at this time?

gsmith4:

Actually, I did like a bunch of them. Passed on all though, since I've always been burned trading them. But..the charts look pretty good.

majorguns asks:

You mentioned VERT on TV a few weeks back. In congestion now? Do you still own it?

gsmith4:

No, sold it at 243.

lufml72 asks:

Infospace -- still going higher??

gsmith4:

Sure looks that way. Why? I do not know.

wsushockers_1999 asks:

What do you think of the stock starbucks?

gsmith4:

Big fan of their coffee. Like the chart here, too.

sparkle_237 asks:

What about microsoft?

gsmith4:

Love it. See the TSC TV show on Sat!

sappersil asks:

Where do you see the fuel cell industry in the next 5 years?

gsmith4:

Fuel Cell. You mean like PLUG? Oh, I have zero idea. Love the charts, though.

sweatin_bullets asks:

Gary, do you give any consideration to the changing premarket bid/ask on a stock that meets your critera?

gsmith4:

Zippo. Don't even look at that. Hopefully the stocks I trade are liquid enough, so it doesn't matter.

wbe56 asks:

What do you think about imnx, Gary?

gsmith4:

Powa-House!

wsushockers_1999 asks:

Would you invest in the Asian market?

gsmith4:

Nope. Don't know it, and too much popping right here.

sportingchris1_1999 asks:

What is the outlook on CORL?

gsmith4:

Had it's run. Time to move on.

heleng_71107 asks:

Do you like QCOM here?

gsmith4:

It's okay. Not a perfect time to buy, though, as it hasn't had breakout and not at a base.

bigcat567_1999 asks:

Gary, Is ATT still dead money? Yhanks.

gsmith4:

Yup.

falcomex asks:

PUMA tanked from its highs and is lately moving up again.....you think it will continue ...and take out the old highs?

gsmith4:

I do, yes.

bigcat567_1999 asks:

Gary, If you are familiar with IONN, would you please give me your take on it? Thanks

gsmith4:

Traded it the other day. Wish I had held!

logar11 asks:

VGIN looks great. Is there a suggested sell on that? Thanks.

gsmith4:

Depends on your time frame. Really starting to move, though.

fluffnpuff39 asks:

When will pfe break out?

gsmith4:

Boy, don't know. But at least it's stopped going down!

lufml72 asks:

Is this New economy thing for real now or are we in the midst of a bubble??

gsmith4:

Really, who knows. All I can sayl, and advice is enjoy it while it's here!

InTheBlack71 asks:

What would be a good buy point for TQNT?

gsmith4:

Maybe right here.

gsmith4:

Also, more on this bubble thing: Aren't most stocks DOWN since the start of 1999? That's why I can't understand this "bubble" talk. More like rotation to me.

lufml72 asks:

DELL had nice pop today (finally) -- going higher u think??

gsmith4:

Eventually, yes, it looks that way.

Billyob123 asks:

Hey GBS! Love your work at TSC! Do you find the Relative Strength MA discussions by the Wordens useful as a short term trader?

gsmith4:

You know, I have looked at that and it is very interesting. Still, I like to cash my winners in a lot shorter time frame, than even they suggest. But, I do like that approach, although I'd measure RS vs. the Nasdaq.

laura_the_street:

Thanks for coming.