Gary B. Smith Chats on Yahoo!

GBS talks about Intel, Conexant, Adobe Systems, Lucent and more.
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Gary B. Smith chatted on Yahoo! August 17 at 5 p.m. EDT.

lpoynter_98

Welcome to Yahoo!, we're ready to start.

gsmith4:

I am here -- back from vacation -- rested -- and ready to go!!

gsmith4:

Questions on stocks, the market, TSC, TSC TV, Swimming...heck any and all are welcome!

stock_dabler asks:

Any comments on extending trading hours ?

gsmith4:

Yeah, much ado about nothing. Hasn't affected me one iota yet, and doubt if it will.

Trench_rat asks:

The chart on CAMP show a succession of steps and risers for a few months now. It has never broken the 50 day mover even once in all this time. This wireless nuts and bolts player was once a 40+ stock back in the day. How does this chart look to a chartman now?

gsmith4:

Rat, good to have you: CAMP looks great, but after two big days, I might take some short term profits. On the extended hours: much ado about nothing. Hope it stays that way!

dcraze asks:

Intel has had a nice move.

Jim Cramer

said it was going to 100. Do you agree?

gsmith4:

Ha: typical fundamentalist trying to be a technician. But, I hate to say it, I think he's right!

Trench_rat asks:

GB...the chart on CNXT looks to be coming out of a period of consolidation now with a run at highs of $70. This wireless chip makes is locked into QCOM and should ramp earnings and revenues quarter over quarter for some time...how does this chart look to you after today's action?

gsmith4:

Rat have to say...lousy. Setting up for another trip to the downside. Just too much overhead resistance.

Icover asks:

Gary, have you been watching ADBE and saw its breakout today?

gsmith4:

Yep, had that one on my radar! Nice move but needs to come back a bit.

puttar_1967 asks:

Could you give a novice technical guy, 2 or 3 key things to look for in conjunction with fundamentals?

gsmith4:

Sure: my column, my column, my column! Ha, just kidding.

gsmith4:

No look for price, congestion, and volume surges!

chipindianapolis asks:

Gary what do you think of LU?

gsmith4:

I don't like it or dislike it here. Going sideways I think.

feihin asks:

Gary, With the GBS system, do you think it's prudent when a 2.5% profit is reached to move your stop loss to break even or just ride it out? Thanx, Meat

gsmith4:

Well, that's a great question, and really gets to money mgmt. Really almost any system will work. In your case, you just have to be prepared to cut your losses quicker also.

kathymccoy asks:

What do you think of Kera, will it ever do as well as lvci did?

gsmith4:

KERA not looking good right now. Needs a bounce, and pronto!

jaaaya asks:

Is aol is still good?

gsmith4:

...for nothing!! Ha, just in a funny mood. Actually, though, AOL I just can't see as a long right now unless your time horizon is REALLY long.

WSBroker asks:

Where are you finding your best longs these days? Chip sector?

gsmith4:

Chips and software.

semi_charmed_life_00 asks:

In your opinion, what's causing the late buying we have been seeing lately?

gsmith4:

Market wants to be bullish. If it was bearish, we'd see late selling.

Trench_rat asks:

GB: the chart on ARMHY seems to have broken some on that 3rd attempt to break out to new highs. She left a couple of small gaps back in the day...see any chance now that a rat might just wait in that gap? You know a rat likes to wait in those gaps!

gsmith4:

ARMHY just too spikey for me. EVERY day there is a gap!

mrblonde76298 asks:

What is the most important technical factor to watch?

gsmith4:

Price change.

drussell75 asks:

Gary, wanted your short term opinion technical opinion on AMAT.

gsmith4:

AMAT = congestion right now. Pass!

bigcat567_1999 asks:

Gary, Do you still see stagnation in AT&T? Thanks

gsmith4:

Yeah, with a slight bearish tint to it. But, one could argue for a bottom right now I guess. Murky chart!

bpat40 asks:

Gary, I have employed your GBS classic approach with results near expected return. If you don't mind my asking, how are you doing YTD and lately?

gsmith4:

I am up about 35%. Shorts have dried up. Longs are doing nicely.

deskjockeyshorts asks:

Must a breakout always be to a new high/low, or will a decisive move beyond/below support/resistance on great volume be enough for you?

gsmith4:

A decisive move is the key!

gsmith4:

On my "method" let's just say I am up nicely this year. Shorts have dried up, but longs are starting to punch in.

chipindianapolis asks:

Gary, what do you think of csco?

gsmith4:

Love it! One of the few Adam and I agreed upon on the TV show.

Canman169 asks:

How does Dell look from a technical point of view?

gsmith4:

I stand by my TV comment! Be patient until the triangle is broken

dcraze asks:

Which charting tool do you find most useful?

gsmith4:

I really like Worden Bros. TC/2000

feihin asks:

Gary, My question on the GBS 2.5% and moving up the stop loss was meant to ask. If you gain 2.5% profit does it make sense to move the stop loss to even instead of risking 6%.

gsmith4:

Sure, that would work. But here's the problem: you'll get a number of trades that come back to breakeven, rather than drop back and then shoot up to 5%. So you're overall expectancy on the wins is now lower. But your losses will still average 6%. So, now your money mgmt is out of kilter.

LAHmiller asks:

what about DCLK? Its been trying to move up recently. Do you see revisiting the 170's anytime?

gsmith4:

Sure, on a reverse stock split!! Ha, I am killing myself. 170 on dclk. Unlikely at least anytime soon.

drussell75 asks:

Gary, how's "TheStreet.com" show on

FoxNews going

? Get stage fright?

gsmith4:

Good question. First, I really love doing the show. Second, I am always a bit nervous right before

Brenda Buttner

sends it to me. But, I'll tell you this: I am a LOT more nervous watching my girls swim!!

dougiebay asks:

What do you think about the Gap after the past couple of weeks?

gsmith4:

Made a furious comeback until today. I'd rather be short than long right now.

Trench_rat asks:

GB: DISH is one rat has been waiting under for some time now. She gapped up on the upgrade this am as we know. Do you see anything in the chart that says she will retrace anytime soon as she never hit a rat's limit at 60.....poor rat!

gsmith4:

The stock actually dropped from the open. Still, I don't think it'll drop to 60 soon. Looks strong.

deskjockeyshorts asks:

I've read you saying you don't put too much stock (ouch, sorry) in moving averages. Can you elaborate?

gsmith4:

Sure. First I do watch the 50 DMA. But the problem with any MA is this: WHICH MA? I mean is the 49 MA really any better or worse then the 50 MA?

Steverino54191 asks:

Hi Gary, have you noticed the Head & Shoulders in the Dow, NASDAQ and SPX? Looks like a signal to sell could be made at the 24th of August.

gsmith4:

Steverino: what time on the 24th? No, if it's a head and shoulders, I guess we'll know tomorrow!

bigcat567_1999 asks:

Gary, I've asked you before about PENN and the $10 price (which it hit) but at what point do you see $10 becoming resistance ? thanks

gsmith4:

I actually don't see 10 becoming resistance. Stock is just regrouping right now.

gsmith4:

You'd think so given the past few days. Unfortunately, many have reached the very top of their downward trend channel. I'd be VERY cautious right now.

unclebenny asks:

Hi GBS! With the CPI being tame today, do you have any financials that are looking good on your charts?

gsmith4:

Well, you'd think so, but I really saw none lately. No banks, no brokers, nothing.

JessicaHolmes13 asks:

Gary, I am a 14 year old girl who has saved $1000 all her life. In two years I will be buying a car. Where is the best place to put my money to get interest and to be safe?

gsmith4:

Uh oh: I guess you and I either have a Yugo or a Porsche riding on this, Jessica. Dead safe is the bank unfortunately. Fairly safe is stuff like INTC. I guess that's a good stock area. But, if it was my car money, I'd go for a money market

busdriver27 asks:

Is bio-met a good buy at this time?

gsmith4:

If you mean BMET, it looks very shortable if it doesn't break its uptrend tomorrow.

clcs33 asks:

I hear you are the star of

TheStreet's

TV show. Where can I see the show in Oklahoma? We've had electricity for weeks now!

gsmith4:

Well CL (and I KNOW who you are): you go out your door to your outhouse, hang a left, and ask for Ed at Ed's Exxon. He'll know what to do!!

revo asks:

What is your opinion of the gold sector at this point?

gsmith4:

Dullsville. Still!

Trench_rat asks: GB:

See anything in the ATHM chart that might indicate a bottom as long last or what?

gsmith4:

...not yet! Still way below its 50 DMA. Yuck.

WSBroker asks:

Any thoughts on HIFN?

gsmith4:

Whew! Powa-house. But too late for this trade to jump on board...

andurwho asks:

What about Compac computer as an investment?

gsmith4:

If your time horizon is long enough...I STILL think you can do better!

adekel asks:

How do you know which DMA to use when looking at a chart?

gsmith4:

Oh, I always use the 50 DMA because that's what everyone else looks at!

cK_y2000 asks:

What do u think of the Enterprise Solutions stock... like SAP, BAAN, etc?

gsmith4:

Have had their heyday...

WSBroker asks:

Mets or Yankees?

gsmith4:

Easy one: Yanks!!

feihin asks:

Are there any plans for you to get more than 3 minutes on the tube?

gsmith4:

Yeah, really. If those blowhards like

Jim Cramer

and

Herb Greenberg

would just shut up... No, actually, our great producer,

Gary Schreir

is working on it!

halinc98 asks:

How is the chart on incx.

gsmith4:

Great if you're short!

MoonRiverMan asks:

Gary, you use the phrase "money management" alot in your column and here, too. Does that basically mean how you allocate your capital? Do you give some picks more funding if they look superior? Do you use options to leverage your capital?

gsmith4:

Yeah, MM is capital mgmt, and for me, setting stops and limit targets. I try to use the same amount of capital on each pick, though. And finally, I do not use options. I ALWAYS get those wrong!

revo asks:

How far do you see 30-yr treasury yields going, and finally settling at?

gsmith4:

I think the bear market is just about over for those.

WSBroker asks:

How about MU?

gsmith4:

If you want to get in, now's the time... I don't mind it here.

akuma_x3 asks:

Should I buy A Sega Dreamcast for $200 when it is released or should I wait until the price goes down?

gsmith4:

Oh, I can get those for you through GBS.com for $189!

ricprofit asks:

What do you think about AFFX? It was up 10% today on above average volume?

gsmith4:

Saw that: Unfortunately, now it's too "v" ish for me.

Trench_rat asks:

GB: here's a tough one for a chartman; the chip fab supplier called PRIA was beaten down recently on failure to get a contract from INTC, but she has rebounded off support at the 25 leve. Would you enter here or wait for a better "tell?"

gsmith4:

I would wait. In prime shorting position right now.

Majiio asks:

EXDS (Exodus Commun.) took out its old high today...where to now?

gsmith4:

Looks like the 90s.

allibaba99 asks:

Gary can you tell me how to identify what is strong stock vs. weak intraday.

gsmith4:

Intraday? I'd look for big price moves accompanied by strong vol.

WSBroker asks:

SDTI looks strong, don't ya think?!

gsmith4:

I wasn't nuts about today's action. Needs to move sideways to consolidate that big recent move.

gnu_man asks:

What do you about RHAT ? (from Red Hat Open Source Linux software company)

gsmith4:

Well, Seymour loves this stock. Just not enough bars for me to tell, though. My personal view: WAY over-hyped.

dswtt asks:

Is MER off the "death bed" for now?

gsmith4:

Just about. Needs one more good day to make me a believer.

gsmith4:

Flip answer: more aggressive sellers than buyers!

dougiebay asks:

Hi Gary...love your column. I was wondering your opinion on lvci. Looks like a good short around here.

gsmith4:

Thanks. As for LVCI, it's come down a bunch. A risky short if anything.

najeanette asks:

GB: What's happening to the internet stocks? What's the trend?

gsmith4:

They need to clear their 50 DMA. Stuff like EBAY is right on the border right now. So unless the 50 DMA is broached, I wouldn't be a buyer.

Canman169 asks:

Can you recommend a good book on technical analysis?

gsmith4:

See my 5/3 col.

feihin asks:

How did you daughter wind up in Pittsburgh?

gsmith4:

Ah: She swam in the USS Eastern Zone Swim Championships. The highest level you can get to for a 10 year old. Swam very well, and made her old man cry!

Trench_rat asks:

GB: QLGC is another fiber-optic player garnering a lot of attention these days. She has recently split and retraced on that news. This one bounced off of the 65 level and went right back to pre spit levels. Do you see any indication that she may retest the lower level anytime soon?

gsmith4:

Yep. Looks like a mini-double top.

gsmith4:

Long I like. Short I dislike.

jaaaya asks:

I have a stock symbol NERX any ideas?

gsmith4:

Yeah: stay away from cheapy stocks.

malcolm88 asks:

Any ideas on YHOO?

gsmith4:

Maybe a bit of a bottom. But, too risky for me to go long!

gsmith4:

Thanks all. I hope these annoying technical problems weren't too distracting. A thank you to Laura for helping, and my daughter Diana for helping this eve.