Gary B. Smith Chat on Yahoo!
Gary B. Smith chatted on Yahoo! April 13 at 5 p.m. EDT.
TSCEllen:
Hey everyone and thanks for coming to today's chat with Gary B. Smith! It's been a very exciting couple of days so let's get started.
digby_dawg asks:
Intel dragged down techs today, any other companies also at risk?
gsmith4:
Well, it looked like a lot of Net stocks got hit. So...those are ALWAYS at risk, I guess.
bz624 asks:
How do you handle stocks that rise or fall in sympathy to another company's news?
gsmith4:
If it's just one specific sympathy stock, I generally won't trade that. If it's a whole industry, I figure something is endemically wrong, and WILL trade those.
vantomb asks:
Gary, how do we deal with the feeling of being left behind in the Internet stocks, maybe forever?
gsmith4:
Actually, I'm going to write about that on Monday. But, here's what I do: content myself with "just" banging out 50% years!
Alakazam_21000 asks:
WHAT ABOUT THOSE PESKY TAXES?
gsmith4:
Here's my strategy: I'm not paying this year!
trapper_james asks:
Hi Gary,What do you see in the short term for small caps?
gsmith4:
I had a chart on the Russell a few days back. Think they're going up!
John_in_cal asks:
Hello Mr. Smith. Are you worried about this latest trend in stocks and how can it effect the internets?
gsmith4:
Latest trend? You mean the fact that if it's .com it automatically goes up!
hermpsm asks:
Why on a lot of the charts you don't look for high for the year?
gsmith4:
I used to, but found I only needed a break from congestion to get my 5% gain.
jkcfp asks:
Hello from Karin
gsmith4:
Hi Karin: our resident Texas Swim Mom!
ghillct asks:
Gary, I've noticed you've increased your minimum avg. volume to 300k is this because of increased lot size or performance?
gsmith4:
Increased Lot size. I don't know if that's good or bad, btw!
jkcfp asks:
Gary, what do you think of Intel's dropping in Instinet?
gsmith4:
You know: probably meaningless. What really matters is where it trades tomorrow! Lot of fakeouts on the Instinet.
bernard155 asks:
How old are you?
gsmith4:
41 and holding!
rajah138 asks:
If GBS strategy is superior to buy and hold, why have any IRA money in mutual funds, etc?
gsmith4:
Great question: I just pulled everything out of 401K's etc. No doubt, marking the top!
John_in_cal asks:
Oh wise one, is there a internet stock left that is a good buy?
gsmith4:
Yeah, there's a few I was looking at: Geek, Seek, etc. Also, there's a lot that have to go through some ups and downs: ivil, etc.
BlahBlahDah asks:
What is the technical outlook for PTEK?
gsmith4:
Wow, had a huge day today, but then pulled back. Probably up more in the next few days.
John_in_cal asks:
What sector represents a good opportunity in the market right now?
gsmith4:
Other than Internet? I like Paper products ironically.
Billyob123 asks:
GBS! I Just got TC2000! Did you find it difficult to "learn to use" the software at first? Any tips?
gsmith4:
No, pretty straightforward. See my archived colums for how I use it.
BlahBlahDah asks:
Do you have any take on the technicals on LPGLY?
gsmith4:
Yeah, if that stock doesn't pull back, there is no justice!
jkcfp asks:
Still looking at that IBM thinkpad, it just got cheaper too, you still like yours, right?
gsmith4:
Yep, love it!
Pimpking24 asks:
What do you do for a living, in your own words?
gsmith4:
You mean what do I tell folks? I generally tell them I'm a writer. And lately saying I write for
TheStreet.com
even gets a knowing nod!
qbt111 asks:
According to GBS strategy how would define "perfect congestion"?
gsmith4:
20 to 25 trading days with multiple touches across the resistance line.
John_in_cal asks:
Does the latest new with Intel represent a buy for the stock?
gsmith4:
Looks better as a short, frankly.
vantomb asks:
Gary, Have you and Wesson made any major new adjustments to your scans?
gsmith4:
Nope, actually we're refocusing on the old classics. Strayed just a bit for a few weeks. Not a good use of time.
ghillct asks:
Gary, do you always stick to your discipline, I mean what if your short TYC and only an eighth of a point from hitting your profit target and then Barron's decides to write it up as if it's GE in the making. Don't you get the itch to cover?
gsmith4:
The itch? Yes. But, I've learned not to second guess myself. If it gets stopped out so be it. Out of thousands of trades I do, they all balance out!
gsmith4:
As an example, I DID NOT cover G when it was close and got the benefit of a nice gap. So, it pays to be patient.
hermpsm asks:
Do you still look at IBD to find stocks in black?
gsmith4:
I have not used IBD in almost a year.
njf82 asks:
How do you like working at
TheStreet.com
?
gsmith4:
Well, actually working for
TheStreet.com
since I don't actually go there. But, I really love it. They've treated my like a pro since day one, stupidly on their part, but I'm not saying anything!
jkcfp asks:
What do you think of VDAT? I am long.
gsmith4:
Gee, it's only tripled in the last few days. Well, I might want to take some profits, but I'm always getting these moonshots wrong.
Canman169 asks:
Is CPQ a good buy at these levels?
gsmith4:
Yeah, actually, I can see a potential bottom there. But, not really my style.
Neve_21 asks:
What is IBD?
gsmith4:
Investors Business Daily.
ppdn51a asks:
Does GBS require a close above congestion or the high for the day above congestion?
gsmith4:
A close above congestion.
John_in_cal asks:
Can you give us your 5 best "buy" picks?
gsmith4:
Impossible to say, since I don't know your time frame. Sorry.
hermpsm asks:
Do you make your moves strictly on TC2000 information and your discipline?
gsmith4:
Yep, pretty boring, huh?
Pimpking24 asks:
How many computer do you have in your home and work place?
gsmith4:
6...and we're thinking of adding a raised floor! (tech geeks, you can laugh now.)
jkcfp asks:
I am tempted to buy TERN again. What do you think?
gsmith4:
A nice breakout today Karin. But a bit "v" ish for me. An "okay" pick.
qbt111 asks:
Out of all the technical indicators, which one is your favorite and why?
gsmith4:
Volume surge if I had to take one to a desert island.
nixnux asks:
What did you mean by stating that your "refocusing on the old classics?"
gsmith4:
Oh, we're farting around with some special scans. But, they didn't work any better than the normal stuff. So back to the basics!
njf82 asks:
What are the criteria that make a stock "good" to invest in?
gsmith4:
Invest? That I never do? Trade? See my long columns in the
TheStreet.com
archives.
Birbal13 asks:
What's you opinion on NTAP?
gsmith4:
Another new high today. Looks just a bit extended, so I'd wait for a pullback.
Billyob123 asks:
Gary, do you place orders during market hours or simply enter your orders before the open?
gsmith4:
I send my orders in before the open, but my broker places them in the first few minutes.
jcgosu asks:
What do you think of OMKT?
gsmith4:
Now that's at least a reasonable looking internet stock. If it breaks to 17+ could be a big winner.
ppdn51a asks:
You have said that you average a 70% win rate on longs. Does this take into consideration trades that you close because they have been open over 30 days?
gsmith4:
Yeah, but those are very infrequent. BTW, it's 20 days now.
tuna1212 asks:
Where did you get your glasses?
gsmith4:
These specs are Giorgio Armani's. I hope he doesn't miss them!
bbigsby asks:
Hey Gary, loved the GBS Yahoo! thread review! Your "one size fits all" stops worry me. Wouldn't you be better off with volatility-based stops?
gsmith4:
Perhaps, but very difficult to compute, and even harder to backtest.
donkan7 asks:
How come you give away your trading secrets. They'll stop working if many people adopt them, won't they?
gsmith4:
Yeah, you'd think so, but you know it never turns out that way. In fact, see my column of this past Wednesday for more thoughts on that topic.
njf82 asks:
Do you think there will be a correction in internet stocks?
gsmith4:
At some point in the millennium? Well, you'd think so!
vantomb asks:
Gary, great columns recently on "Rules for going long and short" (thanks for the great work), Do you find yourself getting a little nervous about going long on some of these expensive stocks?
gsmith4:
Thanks for your nice comments. Worried? No, not really. My risk is so low on any one trade, I'm generally not bothered unless it's say a $200 stock.
hermpsm asks:
Do you still insist on 150% volume increase over prior day?
gsmith4:
Yep. Ironclad rule.
Tar_Heel_Maniac asks:
What does TSC stand for?
gsmith4:
The Street.com
!
jkcfp asks:
Noticed all my scans come up with V pattern stocks, Internet pattern?
gsmith4:
Yeah, I've noticed that too. I pass on those. Just too risky.
bbigsby asks:
My stop losses should be what % of my total equity with something like GBS?
gsmith4:
If I get stopped out, I lose about 1% of my equity. Many times not even that much.
goldiesacks asks:
What are your thoughts on AOL?
gsmith4:
As a company: a juggernaut. As a stock? Moving sideways, and probably looking to go up...Again!
bbigsby asks:
Do you want do what you joked about on April 1st?
gsmith4:
No, No Way! Who needs the headaches?
AZWaterMan asks:
Tech stock valuations are so high. How does a value investor find opportunities in the tech sector, and what investment criteria should be used?
gsmith4:
Honestly, and I don't mean to be flip: I'd either forget about being a value investor or be prepared to sit out the market for a bit.
John_in_cal asks:
Do you think brokers will be a thing of the past with all the Online Sites? What should the single investor know about these types of investments?
gsmith4:
I think brokers will go away when supermarkets go away. Like never!
BlahBlahDah asks:
Judging by the past couple of days, is the long awaited small-cap resurrection here?
gsmith4:
Yep: And, humbly, I called it a week ago.
balloonsacs asks:
How are the averages this year - long and short?
gsmith4:
You mean MY averages: as usual, I'm killing it on the shorts: about about 66%. Overall, not too bad.
njf82 asks:
What do you think about the Net Ipo's?
gsmith4:
Honestly: totally idiotic. But, I'll reserve judgment until
TheStreet.com
and my wife does their's respectively!
qbt111 asks:
Can you describe the market psychology at play behind a breakout?
gsmith4:
In 10 words? Folks feel it's okay to now buy at a higher price.
ppdn51a asks:
Is the 20 days for shorts also?
gsmith4:
Yeah, that's a good guideline.
jkcfp asks:
Gary: Georgio's? Did Nancy buy them?
gsmith4:
Are you kidding? If I'm wearing ANYTHING that looks halfway decent she bought it!
hermpsm asks:
Do you like gaps up on volume?
gsmith4:
Love 'em.
vodkamartini6 asks:
Gary, do you know Todd Shaver of The Bull Market Report?
gsmith4:
I read exactly one newsletter: the Drach Report by Robert Drach. So, don't know Todd.
trader1949 asks:
How do you trade net stocks that are practically vertical, but show good volume every day?
gsmith4:
Here's the sad part: I don't!
jcgosu asks:
What is your opinion on ECHO?
gsmith4:
Hello? Hello? Hello? Hah, a small joke. No, the stock still looks weak to me.
bbigsby asks:
Do you ever pair-trade? Or does that pollute the system with fundamentals?
gsmith4:
No, I keep my method pristine!
John_in_cal asks:
By your answer to the correction of internet stocks, I take it that you do not see it coming anytime soon?
gsmith4:
No, I wouldn't say that: in fact they all looked pretty weak to me today. In that segment NOTHING surprises me, either direction.
kewgardens98 asks:
Do you think CSCO is a good stock?
gsmith4:
Good stock? Yes. good trade right now? Maybe.
accom asks:
Gary, what's the reliable moving average to determine entry and exit point?
gsmith4:
I don't use moving averages, sorry.
BlahBlahDah asks:
Did the recent slide in the health-care software stocks hit bottom? CERN, for instance seems to bounce back to its prior levels whenever it takes a hit.
gsmith4:
Let's put it this way: I hope not, since I'm short WLP!
chelsea_18_f asks:
How did you come into this career and who were your role models who lead you there? By the way, I just love your work!
gsmith4:
Thank you. I came to
TheStreet.com
via
Sports Illustrated
. As for my role models, in writing I think
Rick Reilly
of
SportsIllustraded
is absolutely the best. As for trading, I try to trade like
Ed Seykot
(read Market Wizards) In general, though, I just try to work as hard as my wife!
bbigsby asks:
Do you worry about burn-out? Or did you build GBS to be your Perfect World?
gsmith4:
Well, I did build GBS to be able to trade for a long time. But, yeah, I worry about burnout. Not often though.
Kevin1952 asks:
What is driving the recent rapid increases in Safeguard Scientifics (Nasdaq, SFE)?
gsmith4:
Boy, wish I knew. It must have entered some Internet index somewhere!
all_or_nothin asks:
Great article on
Duval
in
Sports.Illustrated
., I actually enjoy your golf writings as much as the technical analysis. Thanks. P.S., Your making me some money.
gsmith4:
Uh, well, I hate to say it. but that's a different Gary Smith who wrote that Duval column. He's a good ole Southern Boy, and I'm a damn Yankee!
maxxineee asks:
Will CYTEC IND. blow away estimates Thursday?
gsmith4:
Oh, I'm glad you asked, because the CEO just called and said.....whoops, he hung up on me!
BSAFrank asks:
How do you feel about on-line brokers. Is it the way to go?
gsmith4:
It depends which one, of course, but overall, I think they're here to stay.
angel_23220 asks:
Hi Gary, any thoughts on IDX?
gsmith4:
Looks like it wants to head back to $10.
vantomb asks:
What do you think will be the bandwidth winner: cable or dsl?
gsmith4:
Toss-up: See Jim Seymour's excellent columns on this topic.
Pimpking24 asks:
Do you think the world will end in the year 2000?
gsmith4:
Yes, most definitely. That's why I'm not paying next year's taxes!
njf82 asks:
How often do you see Jim Cramer, and what do you think of hedge funds/managers?
gsmith4:
I have seen JJC exactly once, so I'm guessing he's avoiding me! As for hedge fund managers: more power to 'em!
ehrler2 asks:
Do you foresee an imminent price decline of the Internet stock high flyers?
gsmith4:
Imminent? No way of telling. In fact, everytime I think they're going to go down, they go up!
ppdn51a asks:
Please clarify your volume criteria.
gsmith4:
I look for 150% of the 50 day ma of the volume as my breakout criteria.
accom asks:
Could you please explain how a point and figure chart works?
gsmith4:
I cannot. I'm totally ignorant on the topic.
malcolm88 asks:
Gary, your thoughts on YHOO, short and long term?
gsmith4:
I like it as long. Would love it if it broke the $220 level.
njf82 asks:
What do you think of the new proposals for markets to be open longer?
gsmith4:
Meaningless. Most folks won't want to trade much longer than 9:30 to 4.
psycho_trader_68 asks:
Gary, any opinion on NETE?
gsmith4:
Nice pullback form its recent high. Looks like it has more left in it.
Kevin1952 asks:
What is the long term growth potential of Rambus, Inc. (Nasdaq, RMBS?
gsmith4:
Get out the casket.
vantomb asks:
TGO looked like a good short for today, how does the chart look to you?
gsmith4:
I had it as a short. Got stopped out, so my eyesight must have been bad!
lloydc34 asks:
Do you ever let option activity influence your decision making process?
gsmith4:
Never.
BlahBlahDah asks:
What is the logic behind the accepted notion that "when most people expect the market to go lower, it actually moves higher" or vice versa?
gsmith4:
When "most" people think it's going lower, they've already sold. Therefore, even a little bit of buying raises prices. And...vice versa.
pupsiclenhita asks:
Your interpretation of Lucent and EBAY charts?
gsmith4:
Lu doesn't look so bad. A nasty spill but right back at its breakout. Ebay also hovering near its breakout;. Both look fine.
trader1949 asks:
Are you looking at the drillers yet Gary?
gsmith4:
Nah, I'm done with them. Back in congestion for the time being.
jcgosu asks:
What is your volume rule, please explain?
gsmith4:
See above.
Regulatin_Styles asks:
When might things pick up for DELL?
gsmith4:
A pretty gruesome looking chart. It has to take out $46 again, and that's look far off for awhile.
Billyob123 asks:
GBS, do you ever scrap your 5% rule and trail a stop to ensure at least 5% gain?
gsmith4:
No, tried it, but always face the tough question? When do I move my stop up?
angel_23220 asks:
PROG looks interesting. Any thoughts?
gsmith4:
Yeah, it does look interesting. But I'd still pass as a long.
accom asks:
Please tell us your favorite sectors for short/long trading right now.
gsmith4:
Actually, there's really nothing short that looks good. On the long side, I like boring paper companies.
JCanti asks:
Gary can I have a opinion on ORCL and CUBE?
gsmith4:
Orcl looks nasty. I wouldn't buy it here. Cube looks like it want to drop further. Both are pretty ugly.
dianadel asks:
What is your opinion about the Internet Fund, as an investment, as opposed to individual Net positions? I have both but am tending to feel like the "Fund" is safer!
gsmith4:
Well, if the Interent stuff drops the funds won't be any safer: heck they all own the same darn stuff. I think a year from now, there will be a lot fewer internet funds.
AA8976 asks:
What do you think of TUNE? Do you think it will SHOOT up anymore?
gsmith4:
Honestly, if there is ANY sense to this market, it won't!! Which probably means it'll go to $1000!
vantomb asks:
ELNK, was in one of your recent columns, and you liked it as a potential short. Did you go long when it broke to the upside?
gsmith4:
No, but only because it was too volatile. But, certainly a good long trade.
malcolm88 asks:
What do you think of the Market Wizard books?
gsmith4:
Terrific books. Two of my favorites.
bbigsby asks:
Can
Dave Kansas
and the gang keep
TheStreet.com
going if
Jim Cramer
falls off the face of the world?
gsmith4:
Hey, I alone attract at least 22 readers a day!
malcolm88 asks:
Do you think DJIA and Nasdaq will move further up in the following days/weeks?
gsmith4:
Yep, that's my guess.
qbt111 asks:
Great column; is NETA a good short?
gsmith4:
I wouldn't. Has already fallen too far.
njf82 asks:
What do you think about telecommunications stocks?
gsmith4:
T is looking ho-hum. Many of the others in the same boat!
zero_toleration asks:
Hi Gary , I am thinking of starting to get involved into the stock market. Do you have any advice?
gsmith4:
Yes, go back to my very first column and start reading. Your first quiz is next week.
jkcfp asks:
Gary, we would like you to visit us at the GBS club one evening!
gsmith4:
Yeah, I might do that! Hope you can afford me!
TSCEllen:
Thanks everyone for such great questions and thanks Gary for being with us!
gsmith4:
Thank you, Ellen, you're usual terrific job. Thanks to my daughters, Katherine and Diana who manned the charts tonight. And thanks to all of you for some terrific questions!
TSCEllen:
Remember to look for the transcript at www.thestreet.com. If you'd like more info about TSC/Yahoo chats, send email to chats@thestreet.com.
TSCEllen:
Make sure to look for Gary next month!
