We are a personal computer stock blow-up away from a great trading opportunity in tech. Everybody fully expects a fiasco on the horizon, and I am sure one will surface. I know I have stayed away from this group for what seems like a lifetime, but I also know that the group has had a major move down. In the meantime, almost every other sector has had its day in the sun.
In the interim, we saw good rallies in the consumers, in the banks, and in the oils and the oil-service stocks. We had nice runs the papers, chemicals and airlines.
Now these groups seem to have gotten too pumped versus tech, in my book. I know I have been loathe to get involved until
stops going down -- I am short Compaq -- but I think that tech's fundamentals have bottomed for now, and I would like to get long something.
Friday, as I mentioned in my chat, I started buying some
. The company was around town, saying it wasn't disappointed with its performance of late. I also feel that the
announcement took the risk out of that stock for now. And these D-Rams, one day's uptick in pricing and they will explode upwards. Meanwhile, Microsoft indicated on its call that personal computer sales remain very strong.
But the main reason I want to get back in is last week's readers' poll about the way to play the tech upgrade from the Internet. All of the names that stand to benefit seem like classic NDX names to me. On Friday I covered my QQQ
short (if you don't know what that is take a look at the advertisement for the
that's been running on the site), and now I think I want to go the other way, in lieu of trying to pick which individual stock might work. I am either going to buy the QQQ outright, or calls on the QQQ -- maybe even the near-term calls -- in order to capture a quick move. I think the move could begin on Monday.
My gut had told me to wait until the next shoe dropped in tech. My feeling now is that things have come down enough that we won't be able to get in when that next shoe drops. It will already be too late. I am sharing this with you simultaneous to my own actions. I have no NDX, or QQQ, position as I write this.
Looks like the dead-tree press is having a field day at my expense, and will continue to do so. Some of you have written, urging me to take a strident stand against these critics. But I am not taking the bait. You don't come to this column to hear constant defenses of my existence. You come to learn, maybe laugh some, but learn. That's why, going forward, I will only respond with this one comment: In my business, there are two kinds of people, those who make money and those who critique those who make money. I am proud to be in the former, and I will not let the latter stop me.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. At the time of publication, his fund was long Intel and short Compaq, though positions may change at any time. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending an email to email@example.com.