Ford: Big Overseas Upside Seen

International sales and margins could deliver as much as a 40% upside surprise in Ford's stock.
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Ford

's

(FORD) - Get Report

stock could benefit significantly from price hikes and widening profit margins on vehicles sold in international markets.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Ford over the last week: (1) the average price of Ford vehicles in international markets and (2) Ford's international gross margin.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $14 for Ford's stock, about 17% above the current market price of around $12.

The member forecasts suggest that the average price of Ford vehicles in international markets as well as Ford's international gross mMargin will trend above the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.

These projections indicate a combined upside of around 42% for Ford's stock. Ford competes with automotive companies like

Daimler AG

(DAI)

,

Honda

(HMC) - Get Report

and

Toyota

(TM) - Get Report

.

Ford's stock is quite sensitive to the two drivers. Here are some charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the drivers.

The average of Trefis member forecasts for average price of Ford vehicles in international markets indicate an increase from around $19,000 in 2010 to around $26,000 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around $17,500 in 2010 to $23,000 by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

The member estimates imply an upside of 7% to the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock. In the past, the average price of Ford vehicles in international markets has increased from $16,750 in 2005 to around $17,000 in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Ford's stock to Average Price of Ford Vehicles in International Markets.

The average of Trefis member forecasts for Ford's international gross margin indicate an increase from around 16% in 2010 to 18% by the 2016, compared to the flat baseline Trefis estimate of 15.5% over our forecast period.

The member estimates imply an upside of 35% to the Trefis price estimate for Ford's stock. In the past, Ford's International Gross Margin has decreased from 16% in 2005 to 14% in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Ford's stock to Ford International Gross Margin.

Our complete analysis for Ford's stock is

here

.

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