For Tech, No Bad News Is Good News
No PC blowups last night? Then let's take tech.
I know, it seems simplistic, but that's what happens during preannouncement period. Each day without a miss becomes a good one for tech, and we are seeing that right now.
Of course, we have to deal with the program sellers, guys who really do sell at
Dow
10,000. Just like knee-jerkers who sold at 9000, 8000, 7000 and on. It didn't work then, and it probably won't work this time. In fact, I bet a lot of people thought the Dow would fall much more than it did when it touched 10,000. It sure had the feel of a marathoner collapsing, didn't it? I think he gets up later this week.
I'm getting a lot of crosscurrents. I'm hearing it's better to sell on Friday (expiration day), but I can't trust that, especially given that I have heard the same thing every Tuesday for the last 10 expirations -- almost all of which worked higher! I'm still seeing people willing to go negative very fast. For instance, I hear a whiff that
Bristol-Myers
(BMY) - Get Report
has canceled a Boston meeting. I figure that could be good. But the put buyers surface instantaneously. Heck, now I am hearing that it may just mean that some exec's plane was late. You gotta love those who shoot first and ask questions later, but this one is too much! Why don't we have futures on companies' travel arrangements?
Random musings:
I have been negative on oils and oil service -- massively underweighted in this group. (Underweight and overweight are terms really best left to describe waist size, as I don't think about weightings much except for this column.) I haven't missed much (using the
OSX
, the oil service index, as the benchmark). But I am expanding my holdings right here gingerly -- they are massively for sale, so this is not a problem. I'm going with the usual high-quality suspects among internationals and drillers.
Why don't I name names? Homework, fairness to my investors, fairness to
you
. You have to be comfortable owning these dogs, and they are dogs until proven innocent. I just feel like a turn in Japan means a turn in energy. No, I am not betting the house, but if the OSX drops to 55, I will bet even bigger.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending a letter to TheStreet.com.
