Another quarter, and another half-year, where it pays to adopt my late mom's philosophy with a stock market twist: "Things always work out in the end -- if you are long."
It is amazing, isn't it, that if you just stayed long the biggest
stocks, the ones that represent the rock-bed core of large mutual funds, you are up 20%. That's extraordinary.
This time the
bailed you out. They got people thinking that things were not so hot. The Fed got people underinvested, particularly in large-cap growth. The Fed made people less bullish. And then the quarter ends, and what do they do? They make you pay for being less bullish by making the most aggressive stand they could make IN FAVOR OF GETTING LONG: small hike, no more tightening bias.
The Fed made things work out all right if you were long. Already, I am hearing cynical thoughts in the background. The Fed is setting the market up for a big fall to cool it off once and for all when the payroll numbers come out. Oh please, not even
can be that jaded and manipulative. Or the Fed really got it wrong. As if at this stage, I am going to second-guess Greenspan after he has helped preside over an incredible reinvigoration of the American economy.
Nah. Enough with the Fed gaming already. You can't handicap these guys. They are like a pick-em game where even the bookies won't make a line. You can't psych them out, and we better start using the word charlatan for those who think they can.
The simple truth, the one that I didn't put enough money behind, is that things simply aren't that bad, and the Fed, after a brief period of being the enemy, is now your friend.
I never fight the tape and I never fight the Fed. The Fed rejoined the side of the bulls today. And the tape, in case you have not noticed, is downright bullish.
Things always work out well in the end -- if you are long.
, the Teddy Bear, comes running over to me to tell me that the government is investigating
for something else. I joke that any investigation is a buying opportunity. I turn out to be right. What a stock!
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Microsoft. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at