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The Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates this week.

Last week's decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the huge plunge in the crude oil prices is not the backdrop that justifies the first hike of the federal funds rate, expected midweek after the Fed's Open Market committee meeting. The funds rate has been 0% to 0.25% since Dec. 16, 2008, and should have been raised more than a year ago.

Even though Monday's setup is a bit more in line with a rate hike, one isn't justified. The yield on the 30-Tear Treasury bond is just above its 200-day simple moving average of 2.896% after closing Friday just below it. Comex gold is lower but is within the trading range of Friday -- $1,061.7 to $1,079.1. Nymex crude oil is above Friday's low of $35.16 per barrel. The euro versus the dollar remains between its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of 1.0944 and 1.1032, respectively.

If the FOMC followed its original guidelines to consider a rate hike when the unemployment rate fell below 6.5%, the first rate hike would have occurred in June 2014. If the funds rate were raised a notch following the subsequent 10 FOMC meetings, it would have been at 2.75% to 3% following the Sept. 29, 2015, meeting, when a pause was justified by international concerns. These concerns have intensified since then.

If a symbolic "one and done" type of rate hike occurs, or if there's hike at all announced Wednesday, many investors around the world could come to the conclusion quantitative easing and zero rates is a failed monetary policy choice. It would indicate the Federal Reserve missed its chance to normalize interest rates, and the weak global economies would trump the notion a low-interest-rate environment is positive for the stock market. 

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Last week's action in the financial markets showed a global lack of confidence. Stocks slumped, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond showed a return to a "flight to safety" with a decline of 13 basis points to 2.879%. Comex gold futures ended last week at $1,075.7 the Troy ounce, $30.3 above the prior week's low, Nymex crude oil plunged from just below $40 per barrel to $35.16. The euro rebounded from $1.0583 the prior week to a test of its 200-day simple moving average of 1.1031.

Here are the weekly charts and key levels for the exchange-traded funds that represent these markets.

Here's the weekly chart for the bond ETF.


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The 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) - Get iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Report , a basket of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 20 to 30 years, closed at $123.76 on Friday, up 0.2% so far in the fourth quarter and down 1.7% year to date.

On Friday, the bond ETF gapped above its 200-day simple moving average of $122.71 as a sign of a renewed "flight to safety.

The weekly chart is positive with the ETF above its key weekly moving average of $121.67 and its 200-wee simple moving average of $117.72. The weekly momentum reading rose to 35.16 up from 29.79 on Dec. 4.

Investors looking to buy the bond ETF should place a good till canceled limit order to buy the ETF if it drops to $120.20, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of this week. Investors looking to reduce holdings should place a good until canceled limit order to sell the ETF if it rises to $129.58, which is a level on technical charts until the end of 2015.

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Here's the weekly chart for the gold exchange-traded fund.


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The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) - Get SPDR Gold Shares Report , which is backed by gold bullion, had a close of $103.11 on Friday, down 3.5% so far in the fourth quarter and down 9.2% year to date. The ETF set its 2015 low of $100.53 on Dec. 2 then rebounded last week.

The weekly chart has been negative since Oct. 30 and remains so with an oversold condition with the ETF below its key weekly moving average of $104.91 and well below its 200-week simple moving average of $132.30. The weekly momentum reading fell to 18.42 down from 19.77 on Dec. 4, becoming more oversold.

Investors looking to buy the gold ETF should place a good till canceled limit order to buy the ETF if it drops to $100.98, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of the week. A key level of $105.02 remains in play until the end of end of 2015. Investors trading for short-term gains can use this level on GTC limit orders to sell strength.

Here's the weekly chart for the commodity index ETF.


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The iShares GSCI Commodity-Index Trust Fund (GSG) - Get iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust Report , which is 70% to 75% weighed to energy and crude oil, had a close of $14.31 on Friday, down 16.2% so far in the fourth quarter and down 33.7% year to date. This ETF set a new 2015 low of $14.28 on Dec. 11.

The weekly chart has been negative since Oct. 30 and is now oversold. The ETF is below its key weekly moving average of $15.83 and well below its 200-week simple moving average of $28.79. The weekly momentum reading declined to 12.00 down from 15.58 on Dec. 4, becoming more oversold.

This ETF remains below a key levels of $17.25 and $17.62 in play until the end of 2015.

Investors looking to reduce holdings should place a good until canceled limit order to sell the ETF if it rises to $24.02 and $25.38, which are key levels on technical charts until the end of 2015.

Here's the weekly chart for the dollar index ETF.


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The Deutsche Bank USD Index (UUP) - Get Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund Report , which is basket of currencies including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, closed at $25.35 on Friday, up 1% so far in the fourth quarter and up 5.8% year to date.

The weekly chart has been downgraded to neutral from positive with the ETF below its key weekly moving average of $25.52, and well above its 200-week simple moving average of $22.89. The weekly momentum reading declined to 81.05 last week from 85.24 on Dec. 5, but remains above the overbought threshold of 80.00.

The key to the maintaining dollar strength is weekly closes above a key level of $25.53 which is a key level in play until the end of 2015. This level did not hold at Friday's close, Investors looking to buy the dollar ETF should place a good till canceled limit order to buy the ETF if it drops to $24.86, which is a key level on technical charts until the end of December.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.