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So far this year, the market has not provided participants with much of a pullback. It has been a grind for several months, and shorts have been squeezed at each opportunity. Many even came into this week believing that the news in the oil market would cause a huge sell off in equities. However, the market had other plans.

The market is now pushing against resistance. We are right under the 2095SPX resistance at the downtrend line from the all-time high, and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) - Get Free Report  has slightly pushed past its uptrend channel resistance, and is still at longer term resistance, as noted to members over the weekend.

My primary Elliott Wave count has us still as a b-wave within wave iv, but if this strength were to continue into tomorrow strongly through 2095/2100 resistance, then wave iv should be done and we are likely heading higher in wave v already.


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But, we have enough waves in place to consider all five waves off the February low as completed. While it is clearly lower than the ideal Fibonacci extension targets we have for this 5-wave structure (2134-2165), and I would rather see higher levels, the fact that we have the bare minimum, possible number of waves completed off the lows adds even more risk to the long side of the market up in this region.

So, ideally, I would like to see the bears show up to this party as early as tomorrow to take us down to complete wave iv. I would like to see a pullback this week to solidify the larger degree count, and have me looking higher into early May to complete a much more full 5-wave structure into our higher target region.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.