Two weeks ago, I wrote a column entitled Attention All Detractors, about how much I enjoyed when a pick I have gotten a lot of heat for pulls through and moves to the win column.
At the time, I noted big victories I grabbed with
and said I was waiting on
, a pick I made prior to partnering up with
, to pull through.
Last Friday, Wachovia finally came through too -- a $13,200 win. I had gotten quite a few emails about these deep-in-the-money call picks, questioning my logic. My column a few weeks ago was meant to address those questions and show how these picks came around just as I expected.
Today I want to expand on that theme. One recurring question I hear is whether my system works in a down market as well as an up market. Some have claimed -- incorrectly -- that my system only works during a bull market. This is simply not true. The stats don't lie, so let's go to the videotape.
I started the 2008 season on March 25, when I picked
in a column I posted on
. That day, the
closed at 1352.99. From there the index rallied, hitting 1426.63 in mid-May before steadily declining. Yesterday, Aug. 4, the index closed at 1249.01, more than 100 points lower than when the season started.
However, despite the decline during that time frame, I was able to ring the register over and over -- 47 times to be exact. I currently have $117,500 in the win column so far. Many of my early-season picks appeared on
. The others were provided in my subscription newsletter Nails on the Numbers, which is now the only place to get my picks. Nails on the Numbers launched in late April and relaunched with TheStreet.com in late June.
As I noted above, the S&P 500 hit its highest point this season in mid-May. If I only win when the market does well, it stands to reason that May would have been my best month. Also using the same logic, July would have been my worst. July was filled with pain all around, and the S&P 500 hit its lowest point of the season in mid-July.
However, here are the stats. Are you ready? In May, I grabbed 11 wins for a total of $12,100. That's a very respectable total, especially considering I didn't have a ton of picks in play at that point because I started my season in late March. In July, I blew that number out of the water. It wasn't even close. I had 20 wins for a total of $70,800. Many of those wins were significantly more than $1,000 because I averaged down -- or added to my position -- as the price of the particular stock declined. When it bounced enough, I scored.
So far this season, I do not have one single loss on the books -- not one. With most of the picks I currently have in play, I have until January for them to turn my way. Sure, some of the 14 picks in play have gone down since I picked them. That's inevitable. Morgan Stanley went down. Citigroup went down.
stumbled. So did
. By the way, I picked up a $3,200 win with Motorola yesterday.
It's what you do when the picks go down that separate the winners from the losers. When a pick goes down, I choose to follow the rules ... all the way to the bank.
Remember: Life is a journey, enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in stocks mentioned.
Nicknamed 'Nails' for his tough style of play, Lenny is a former Major League Baseball player for the 1986 World Champions, New York Mets and the 1993 National League Champions, Philadelphia Phillies. A three time All-Star as a ballplayer, Lenny now serves as president for several privately held businesses in Southern California. He is the founder of The Players Club; it has been his desire to give back to the sport that gave him early successes in life by teaching athletes how to invest and protect their incomes. He currently manages his own portfolio and writes an investment strategy column for TheStreet.com, and is featured regularly on CNBC and other cable news shows. Lenny was selected as OverTime Magazine's 2006-2007 "Entrepreneur of the Year."