The time element is crucial to my deep-in-the-money call options-picking system. With Tuesday's win on Cameron International (CAM) , my system -- which you can follow through my Nails on the Numbers newsletter -- has a win rate of 96-1.
I'm very proud of that record, which should cross the 100-win finish line in the next month or two, depending upon market behavior.
Time allows me to adjust a position to market conditions. My picks are not set-it-and-forget-it investments. If a pick's underlying price goes down, I must adjust through re-buys at lower prices.
By adding to my position, I lower the average price per contract. This repositions me for a better chance at a win. It helped with my Jan. 6 win on
, which was a $7.50 call option that stayed in play for 62 days before paying out $5,800.
During that time, we added 50 contracts to the initial 10 -- building on our position but lowering our average cost. We had until January 2011 to close out the Corning call. But in a recession, we want as much cushion as possible against an extended bear market. We're all waiting for that bottom.
The same Corning position we've already closed on is now going for $5.45 at the mid-point -- more than $1 above my average cost per share on those 60 contracts. But in a volatile market, we pay more for that extra year of cushion: The January 2010 $7.50 call position is going today for $4.80. So in choosing my position, I balance higher cost against the safety cushion of more time.
Of course, I also have wins that cash out before we have a chance to re-buy. My Jan. 2
win came home after just two days, as did
on Dec. 5.
We are building positions -- and lowering the average cost -- in
, among others.
While General Electric is now out of the money, our extended position going all the way out to 2011 gives this pick plenty of time to rebound, just enough to cash out.
My point is that time allows me to reposition, ride a stock down and wait for a bounce. I want my subscribers to pay attention to the details of my recommendations but filter out the day-to-day gyrations of the market. If a pick is down one day, it could be up the next.
Lenny "Nails" Dykstra, a guy who's used to winning, consistently profits from his deep-in-the-money options calls. You can, too, with his
Nails on the Numbers
and see how it works for you. If you decide to subscribe, just one winning call will pay for a whole year!
At the time of publication, Dykstra had no positions in stocks mentioned.
Nicknamed 'Nails' for his tough style of play, Lenny is a former Major League Baseball player for the 1986 World Champions, New York Mets and the 1993 National League Champions, Philadelphia Phillies. A three time All-Star as a ballplayer, Lenny now serves as president for several privately held businesses in Southern California. He is the founder of The Players Club; it has been his desire to give back to the sport that gave him early successes in life by teaching athletes how to invest and protect their incomes. He currently manages his own portfolio and writes an investment strategy column for TheStreet.com, and is featured regularly on CNBC and other cable news shows. Lenny was selected as OverTime Magazine's 2006-2007 "Entrepreneur of the Year."