Today's Stat Book has several new features that I'm excited to tell you about.
But before I do that, let's get right to today's deep-in-the-money call selection:
( KOMG). This disk-media company's stock has been taken apart over the past year, dropping from a 52-week high of $47.80 to yesterday's close of $30.20, just 3 cents above its 52-week low.
After the company raised guidance in late March, the slide looked to have stopped, as the stock jumped to $34.22. However, it has given back those gains, and then some.
Komag's sales increased 37% over the previous year during 2006, yet the stock has dropped 12% in the past 52 weeks. Some have expressed concern over the lowered guidance of hard-disk makers
, which along with Hitachi account for almost all of Komag's revenue.
However, I believe those concerns have already been priced into the stock, so at $30.20 Komag is a bargain. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings to growth (PEG) ratio of 0.61 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.03. Even if the stock cannot maintain its growth rate, it is still incredibly cheap and worthy of consideration.
I will tell you why: Komag has only 31.16 million shares outstanding, and about 25% of the shares are sold short. Can you say "short squeeze"? With only 31.16 million shares available to trade, I sure as heck wouldn't want to be short, especially when a deep-in-the-money call gives us control of the stock for over five months, all the way until September.
With the stock reaching its 52-week low just above $30.00, it should get some technical support. Additionally, Komag reports earnings on April 25, and all indications point to a solid first quarter. (It raised guidance in March, causing the short-term jump in the stock; shortly after raising earnings guidance, Robert W. Baird reasserted its market-outperform rating on the stock and set its price target at $44.00.)
Along with raising first-quarter guidance, management announced a stock buyback of $200 million. This demonstrates management's belief that the stock can be bought on the cheap now. As a result, there should be a ready buyer for shares, providing an additional boost to the share price. Stock buybacks are an excellent indicator.
I will make my trade by placing a limit order to buy 10 September 25s (QKXIE) for $6.60 or better.
Now on to the Stat Book.
Although I generally keep orders in the portfolio that do not get filled for one week, I am going to remove my order to buy 10 contracts of
today. The purchase price never hit, and the stock made a big move up.
With earnings coming on Thursday, the only way for my limit order to hit would be for the stock to tank after the earnings report. At its present price, there is no good way to win with deep-in-the-money calls, and as a result, no reason to chase the stock.
Although we added some very nice wins since our last portfolio column (the portfolio column runs every Wednesday), tread lightly. The market has gone to Pluto, and that's not even a planet anymore. Bottom line, remember Warren Buffett's sage advice: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
Finally, in an effort to constantly improve my column, I have updated the Stat Book to make it easier to follow. Deep-in-the-money is simplified to DITM, just like good-till-cancelled is simplified to GTC. This week's wins are clearly featured in their own section, as well as DITM Market Watch. Everything is organized to be more uniform and to enhance the look. I hope everyone finds the new Stat Book helpful.
Always remember: Life is a journey; enjoy the ride!
At the time of publication, Dykstra was long KOMG, GE, CMCSA, AMGN, BEAS, XMSR, MMM, BAC, MSFT, SNDK, TXN, WTR, SYMC and PFE.
Nicknamed "Nails" for his tough style of play during his Major League Baseball career, Lenny Dykstra was an integral member of the powerful Mets of the mid-1980s, including the world champion 1986 squad, and the Phillies in the early 1990s.
Today, Dykstra manages his own stock portfolio and serves as president of several of his privately held companies, including car washes; a partnership with Castrol in "Team Dykstra" Quick Lube Centers; a state-of-the-art ConocoPhillips fueling facility; a real estate development company; and a new venture to develop several "I Sold It on eBay" stores throughout high-demographic areas of Southern California.