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Don't Tempt Fate

Today's late rally ahead of the FOMC meeting makes Tuesday's volatility harder to call.

Stop stealing from tomorrow's rally!

That's how I always feel after days like today. I don't want the market to rally ahead of the


decision because that makes tomorrow's volatility even harder to call.

I just want the market, particularly the


, to chill, to stay lower ahead of the Fed so as not to tempt the Fed into doing something that puts the big kibosh on this market. And I don't want to be fearful that the Fed does nothing and then the market sells off because, well, it predicted the Fed would do nothing.

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No matter, the NDX got hammered in the morning and when there was no follow-through selling, the put buyers from last Thursday and Friday blew them out. That's why you saw the lift.

Which one is right -- the NDX selloff from the end of last week, or the NDX romp today?

To me, it is too hard to call. The buying today seems every bit as real to me as the selling did Friday!

It is refreshing to see the


can have a rally after what seems like weeks of pain, but of course, was just about 72 hours worth of selling.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at