JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. -- We got fresh
personal income and spending
numbers this morning.
(a) Disposable (or tax-adjusted) personal income grew 5.6% last year. It rose 0.9% in January (compare to an average 0.5% during the 12 months prior and to 0.7% in January 1999). Its year-on-year increase is on track to accelerate to 6% during the first quarter from 5.7% during the fourth.
(b) Personal consumption grew 7% last year. It rose 0.5% in January (compare to an average 0.7% during the 12 months prior and to 0.8% in January 1999). Its year-on-year increase is on track to decelerate to 7.6% during the first quarter from 7.7% during the fourth.
There will be no meaningful consumption slowdown absent a meaningful income slowdown.
Income growth is still accelerating at the moment.
There will be no meaningful income slowdown absent a meaningful employment slowdown.
numbers released earlier today -- the construct we presented
here three months ago posted a 13% second-quarter increase -- suggest that a meaningful deceleration in job growth isn't yet in the cards.
We will try (weather permitting) to run a helpful