Don't look now, but the bonds are ramping. Everybody wants to pooh-pooh the lack of activity in bonds in the last few days, but that's nonsense. The U.S. bond market is as big and as aggressive as ever and the noteworthy story of today is that bonds may be putting in a bottom.
Yes, I am talking about my position. I am long the bonds. It would help me if they went up. Wow, there's a mouthful of disclosure for you. But let me posit something: Shouldn't bonds have been whacked after that
number came down yesterday? Shouldn't they have been smashed to smithereens after those wild
? Or the massive Christmas spending? These are all supposed to be super horrible developments for bonds.
So why did I buy more and why do I think they work here? Precisely because they didn't get whacked! I like a market -- any market -- that doesn't get pole-axed on bad news. That may mean that a bottom is being put in. This "bottom" thesis wouldn't shock me. Bonds have had one horrible year. Rates have moved up sharply even though there isn't much demand from the government on new industry (which is feasting off the stock market's benevolence.)
We should be faced with some strong data once the new year begins and we will get a further test, but right now they look pretty darned good.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long the 30-year bond. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at