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NEW YORK ( Trefis) -- Disney (DIS) has had success with some of its recent films in 2010. Its Toy Story 3 surpassed $1 billion in global box office revenues this year, becoming the second movie after Alice in Wonderland to reach the $1 billion mark in 2010. Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean 4 is also on the horizon, with the company already planning fifth and sixth sequels. Given the past success of the Pirates of the Caribbean series, the possibility of a continued run of successful film releases could lift Disney's box office market share and stock value.

Disney competes with other studios like Fox Studios owned by

News Corp


, Paramount Studios owned by



and Warner Brothers owned by

Time Warner


. Our current price estimate for Disney's stock stands at $39.72, in line with market price.

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Pirates of the Caribbean Box Office Snapshot

The charts below present U.S. and global box office revenues from the 3 Pirates of the Caribbean movies to date. The success of the series has accelerated since the first movie's release, particularly in international markets. Global box office revenues have averaged around $1 billion for the 2nd and 3rd releases. Disney's plan to produce as many as 6 Pirates of the Caribbean movies demonstrates the confidence the studio has that this success will continue.

Market Share Impact

Notably, during the time when the second and third

Pirates of the Caribbean

movies were released, Disney was close to its global box office market share peak. The fifth and sixth movies are likely to be launched back-to-back, allowing each to build off of the other's success in both box office and DVD sales.

Can the upcoming releases facilitate a market share gain back towards prior levels? The modifiable chart below illustrates the impact of various market share scenarios on the company's stock value.

Potential success of the series goes beyond pure box office sales. Box office popularity also spawns higher DVD sales and content licensing. While these revenues tend to lag box office sales, they ultimately constitute more value to Disney's stock --- we estimate that DVD sales and content licensing generate 7% and 6% of the company's stock value, respectively, vs. roughly 4% for box office sales.

You can see the

complete $39.72 Trefis price estimate for Disney's stock here.

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