Is the bright side the right side?
When I read
Doug Kass's excellent about-face case for a year-end rally
, I believe I have to address the possibility that we could go higher from here, perhaps dramatically, because of some things that could happen and some things that have already happened. Here's a list of 10 things that have been and could go right that would propel us up 1,000 points -- to my
target -- by year-end.
1. The stock market is cheap.
Most of the stocks I follow are in low or mid-teen
multiples or at a
price-to-earnings ratio vs. high growth rate that I regard as being just flat-out cheap, particularly when you consider a 4% 10-year Treasury. Retail at 10 times earnings? Lots of high-growth tech stocks at mid-teen multiples? It makes no sense to me.
2. Takeovers and going-privates could come back.
On a large scale we saw
make a move today for
. On a smaller scale there's money to go private, witness
3. There are some very strong bull markets out there.
Health care cost containment, agriculture, oil and oil services, infrastructure, tech and aerospace defense. There are a lot of sectors that work.
4. Interest rates.
The financials are so dire that the
will have to cut twice by year-end or give us another half-point cut, which will flush a huge amount of money from the sidelines and embolden banks to start lending again.
5. The market still loves high growth.
Research In Motion
. Believe me, if this market were really bad, you wouldn't get those to go up, either.
6. The cheap dollar.
The dollar, which everyone frets about, is just too darned cheap and the moment it bottoms you will see a wave of acquisitions from overseas that could blow your mind.
Oil could find a level where it just gives us some breathing room and allows the world to adjust to higher prices.
8. The government.
The federal government or the Fed actually steps up and buys AAA and AA tranche CDOs to get things moving again. This is simply not that hard a task, but they haven't shown any inclination to do a thing so far. They could surprise us.
9. The negativity and the shorting are so intense that they simply can't be right.
There are too many against the market -- the sentiment issue Kass talks to eloquently about.
10. Global growth.
Our companies just aren't as reliant on the U.S. anymore but "market" thinks they are. That's just not the case.
Am I buying this stuff? I think they are certainly a possibility, or else I would revise my Dow price target. My real issue is that the Federal Reserve holds the key, and I have to trust the Fed, which has been, historically, a right move, but it sure doesn't seem right. Then again, in October of 1998, the Fed came in with a hankering to tighten and ended up calling an emergency meeting to loosen. That alone reminds me not to get too negative when we could very well be near a bottom.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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