What matters here is time frame. I think that we could be entitled to a several-day rally simply because we are the most oversold we have been in about 20 years, and we have the fewest bulls since the same period.
That means we can rally. We know that there are lots of funds that can make a stand and lots of people who still have cash who can come in.
My issue is not the rally. My issue is the time frame. I am selling into this for my 17-year-old's college fund. I was trying to get another year's worth of gains, but I have seen the last two years of gains evaporate.
I am not touching my 14-year-old's money because she doesn't need it yet, and I am confident that things will get better in that time frame.
I do not think that's a difficult concept to grasp even though it continues to elude people.
We are 1,000 points away from my target.
When we get there we will revisit the opportunities. If we don't get it, well, I missed it for my 17-year-old. But I need that cash.
I do not need it for my 14-year-old, so she gets the benefit of the future gains I expect but she could suffer in the interim.
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