This post appeared earlier today on RealMoney. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.
We just can't be as fearful this time around. Sure, it is jarring. For example, we have
down $3.50 on a $13 basis -- that's incredible. We have
yielding 5.6% and
sporting a 4% yield, and
( JOYG) worth just a few hundred million more than the stock it is buying back. We have
yielding 4.37% and
almost at 4%.
So why is this better than what happened when we got a lot of panic lows, the day of Oct. 10, because that was a day when we thought the banks were going under?
Now we know they are not. So we are better off. We are better off. We are better off.
I repeat that because the bank plan is a game-changer, and when we were under 9000 last time it was because we thought
would go under, and we believed that
could be next and that they were about to do a
-- encirclement and destruction -- on
I am now thinking that the Oct. 10 lows that keep surfacing when you hit up stocks can hold for many stocks. Those lows were hit so swiftly and with such brevity that I think we have to bid at or near those levels for anything that was sold into the absurd Monday rally.
For example, I like Chevron, and I wanted very much to buy it at $60-$61 because of that 4% yield. The stock then rallied to $70! That's just crazy: Chevron can't rally up 10 and stay up 10. The only reason Chevron can be down 7 and be a buy is that yield, I would not buy the others that are down like this, because they have no yield support.
I am not as sure of the non-dividend-payers, because they are more leaps of faith right now, and oil, the commodity, keeps going down. They probably have to be bought only if we get down to 900 on the
and 8500 on the
. It is also possible that the Friday morning price, that ephemeral price, could be hit again, a price that is the equivalent of about 8000 on the Dow. More room has to be left for that.
Of course, we have some worse earnings report than we knew we had last week. We have a further decline in the Baltic Dry Index continuing to fall at an incredible rate -- hence why the cyclicals have no traction. We have commodities continuing to plummet, all signs of a severe recession.
But if you are buying now, you have to be thinking that at some point within the next year these companies will be in better shape, because the industrial economy will begin to reflect some of the money that's endlessly being pumped into the system.
It is simply a better time to buy than when we hit these levels last time.
Oh, and I am not going back from when I
at Dow 11,000 on Sept. 19 that you should sell 20%, or from
that if you need the money for the next five years, you should make sales.
I am simply saying that we are getting closer to where we were when we bounced, and we can't be as scared as we were last time, because the European bank plan will make the recession deep but not endless.
Pick, as I am, at the stocks that are about at the panic low levels.
And then wait for more panic lows. If we don't get 'em, we pass on more buys.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron, Freeport-McMoRan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer),"
click here. Click
here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click
here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click
here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click
here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by
TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon.com purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.