Skip to main content

This post appeared today on RealMoney at 10:58 a.m. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.

When someone is as right as Doug Kass has been, when someone has

called the bottom

, precisely at the bottom, when someone was so compelling then that I


my view and told people to get back in because when a compelling bear goes bullish that's a huge deal, then whatever he says or writes going forward must give me pause and make me rethink or challenge my thesis.

Going back to that generational March call, I remember that I had told everyone that stocks may not be the place for the next five years, if you need the money, but when Doug switched and I calculated the downside to be fewer than 600


points from we were, it was just too juicy


to get in. All of the reasons Doug listed to say why to come in are picture-perfect in retrospect. You paid for lifetimes and lifetimes of subscriptions with that call; it was the best I have ever seen.

Now he's got

another big call

, a call that, again, is entirely variant with what the vast majority are thinking.

I have made no secret of liking this market. I have made no secret of my bullishness. But Doug's comments have been weighing on me, coupled with something else: the conviction, made repeatedly months ago, that we will not get above 10,000 on the Dow anytime soon.

I don't want to quibble over 400 upside points, just like I didn't want to quibble over 600 points to the downside. The reasons Doug gives, both the long-term fiscal problems and the short-term enthusiasm/sentiment issues, are enough to make me feel that for many stocks, it just ain't worth it to press the metal.

TheStreet Recommends

Here's the problem for me. Doug calls the market. I am a scale-seller into strength from here. I know you could say "Cramer's a chicken." Here's what I say: I respect Doug's concerns, they are not really refutable, as everything that he fears or says is either empirically true or easily could become true.

In short, I cannot be the anti-Kass. To do so would be needlessly polemical and intellectually dishonest. It would make me dig my heels in just like the people who at Dow 6500 dug their heels in. Do I want to hold on to make those 400 points? A better way to put it is to stick with what brought me here, which I believe we will have short, shallow pullbacks of no more than 3% to 5%, so to leave the table for fear of those isn't right.

There is


in Doug's thinking that makes me feel there will be more than that, because every time we go down 3%-5%, we get the fear, we get the panic, we get the wall of worry that makes me want to get back in big. In other words, the worries that Doug articulates are hellacious, but much of it is


the market and has been in the market for about 1,000 Dow points now. In the meantime, the earnings are getting better, the inventories are lean, housing is improving, so are autos. If we get employment back, we are going higher.

I don't want drama, I don't want to go against the big guy -- not worth it for 400 points. I am simply saying I get it, there are problems, problems that will create short, sharp, shallow dips every time they hit the consciousness of the public.

And I'll buy the market on them, because the fear and belief of doom will be so palpable, because the naysayers will be out in such full force, that you have to take the other side of the trade,

even Doug's trade


Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of He contributes daily market commentary for's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for and, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for

Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer),"

click here. Click

here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click

here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click

here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click

here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by

clicking here. has a revenue-sharing relationship with under which it receives a portion of the revenue from purchases by customers directed there from