This is the final story in a four-part series about what groups are working as we begin to wind down 2009. Be sure to read the first, second and third parts. The series originally appeared Tuesday on RealMoney. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.
NEW YORK (
Group 7: Autos
. If there were a single positive piece about what "Cash for Clunkers" meant to this industry, I didn't read it. But I know what it meant to the lone public automaker -- a gigantic chance to clean up inventories and take market share for
. I am downright bullish about this company -- I prefer the preferred, which has been a phenomenal performer -- and I think that we could experience a 25% increase in auto builds in 2010 over 2009, which will mean very big numbers for the automaker.
I am playing this more-than-a-bounce with
, my newest buy for
, as I think it will begin to put up gigantic numbers as that auto build increases. Unfortunately, there are not enough public plays on the auto trend, which makes it much less discernable. Given the devastation of this industry in 2009, though, you can see why these stocks are moving. Next year just can't be as bad as this year -- a continual and universal theme for many of the companies I follow.
Group 8: Creation and transport of packages
. Few groups are as economically sensitive as corrugated and shipping. They have always foretold better or worse times. Go look at the stocks of
( PTV) and
( TIN). These are not moves that simply revolve around short-covering. They are gigantic moves predicated on more packages moving throughout the system, something that
, the trucker, and
, the shipper, confirmed a very long time ago.
Do not ignore these indicators.
They were the first things that moved after the 1987 crash and they are signaling not just strength but a possible boom.
I look at these stocks as indicators of potential GDP growth, and they are signaling mid-single-digit growth coming by the fourth quarter. You cannot get that kind of growth and
get employment growth, especially if the single biggest impediment to hiring -- the health care plan of the president -- turns out to be moribund.
Forgive the last two cohorts as they are anecdotal and inconceivable but dynamic: vanity and mortgage insurance.
Group 9: Vanity stocks
. These stocks, represented by
, are amazing tells. You use their products when you want to look better. Among the last things sacrificed when the downturn hit were the companies that made you look younger. Long thought to be recession-resistant, the makers of Restylane and Botox got pancaked as orders just dried up. Now these two companies are seeing a turn, which means that the rich, supposed to be so hobbled, might be right back in action. Mind you, I said it was anecdotal, but I was shocked when sales went down for these two, and the stocks tell you the plunge is over.
Group 10: Mortgage insurance
: Finally the 10th and most mystifying group. (If you know better, please email me or feel free to comment -- comment on any stocks in this series, please.) We're talking about
. Look, I thought insurers or real estate products -- any products, from home mortgages to commercial toxic bonds -- were vanquished, dead, shorts that went to zero. These stocks say that's not happening.
I don't understand it. I see no strength in these businesses whatsoever. I believe that anything that rallies in this group is short-covering, but I have been saying that for several hundred percent now. I have to believe that something's behind these moves, something substantive, something that says the losses have peaked or weren't as bad as we thought. I know, I know, seems totally impossible. Can't even fathom it. But they are not levitating on nothing. Some of them even reported profitable quarters, a seemingly total impossibility.
So, there you have what's bothering me about the short side and informing my endless bullishness and belief that the dips can be bought, if we even get dips. These are the 10 sectors that just don't and won't quit. They are on fire, and the conflagration just keeps burning up the bears.
These groups are too important; their gains, too meaningful; their reversals, too ... well, permanent, for me not to believe that a recovery -- maybe a big one -- is in store for 2010. That and that alone would justify these moves.
So you can fret about retail or auto or orders or double dips or commercial real estate crashes or taxes or bankrupt municipalities. You can say that the charts and what they portend are all wrong. You can insist that the facts are so negative that even thinking like this is a big mistake.
I'll just tell you I never fight the tape.
And this, ladies and gents, is the tape we have, the tape we are stuck with, and the tape we can revel in for the rest of 2009.
Written by Jim Cramer in New York
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Johnson Controls. Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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