Here's a vote for insignificance from today's session. It's been a brutal week, one that would have been okay in October, but played havoc with vacation plans for those of us who thought that the first week in August might be a yawner.
All anybody wants to have happen today is nothing. Quiet. That would be a win for everybody.
But let's talk about what has to happen next week for the market to rally. We have to decouple from Asia. Think that's not possible? In 1989 the
stood about 7000 points lower and the
24,000 points higher. There's a decoupling. Last October we crashed with them, then we came back. They stayed down.
Both times the conventional wisdom held that we could not rally in the face of their chaos. Both times the conventional wisdom was dead wrong. It will be wrong again this time, too.
I don't want to be glib about this. But our economy is bigger, stronger and better than Asia's. Period. I keep coming back to a 1994 analogy here. Latin America, led by Mexico, was collapsing. Big trade partner. Important neighbor. Lots of mutual funds involved. Lots of debt and equity involved.
At the time I attended a dinner at a major firm. All I heard was spillover, spillover and more spillover. Everyone was trembling from what was going on in Mexico.
I spoke up and said, hey, no
, no Comintern, no Fifth Column, no Communist Party-backed candidate. I am not worried; there is not some alternative to capitalism being instigated. There is no anticapitalist insurrection. People looked at me like I was some sort of a historian from the Tower. They laughed and dismissed me.
They were wrong. Capitalism came roaring back, better -- and less indebted -- than ever.
The conventional thinkers will be wrong again. The same thing will happen when the smoke clears in Asia. It will be better, more like our economy, less inflationary. I mean, is there anyone more capitalistic than the Chinese?? Their "Communism" reminds me of
capitalism at its rawest, most Dickensian form -- and I don't mean that guy on
So, look for when the tail stops wagging the dog. And when the
morning futures go back to their rightful place, as something for people to talk about, like last night's sports scores.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of TheStreet.com. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending a letter to TheStreet.com at firstname.lastname@example.org.