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We are in the teeth of it now. You can see it. People are suddenly shocked that
could have big losses. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Is anyone really shocked by that?
Looks like tech's not doing well and "even"
doing badly. Did anyone think that KLAC was having a good quarter? Even an OK one? Executives at
are dropping like flies. Why would anyone think that the cutthroat disk drive industry would be doing well? Are you nuts?
How about the oils? There was amazement yesterday about
starting to see cancellations of projects. With oil at $37, are you going to rent a rig at $700,000 a day? It only took one cancellation of one rig to wreck the house-of-cards pricing in that industry. I had
Jim Hackett on last night; APC is the only natural gas producer I like given that so many are unhedged and many others need money. But I have little faith that the stock can stay up here given the pressure down on the group, pressure that brings all stocks down because of rampant ETF selling. There's no dividend support either, so it isn't happening.
How about the "shock" of
? Here's the worst-run major industrial in the worst metals group of the era, and people are SHOCKED that Alcoa's doing badly.
gets downgraded by Merrill. Unbelievable? Or perhaps reasonable given how poorly its end markets are doing?
The only thing that shocks and amazes me in this market is if anyone genuinely believes that
industrial company is doing well. The only secular growth trend out there that I see right now is in online education --
and its acolytes,
American Public Education
being my favorite.
But at the end of last year, the analysts got bullish. We saw multiple upgrades, for example, of the semiconductors and the semi-equipment companies. Multiple ones.
Based on nothing
We took up stocks with incredibly disappointing quarters like
-- and I
We decided that retail was really bad, but people are shocked at the individual numbers from retailers. How can that be? Did people think the retailers were simply low-balling? No, they are simply desperate even as their shareholders bid them up.
had to be having a bad quarter, but collectively, the market decided it was the last bad quarter even though the excellent work by our video team showed that no one is buying any device that is even remotely expensive. Best Buy! How could it have run so much off of
when that one isn't dead yet?
Or how about the insurance companies? They went down on intractable problems involving writedowns and annuities. Then they roared back,
but the problems weren't solved
-- despite the positive annuity article in the
-- why does anyone think they are out of the woods? I know I fell prey to it momentarily last week when I thought that the TARP money made the difference (as I thought for
). Nope. No earnings. That's what matters now.
There are only a handful of companies really doing
in America. But stocks are nowhere near their lows. I do not expect that we will see those lows, but I did not understand the end of last year's rally and was surprised by the run to mid-9000s on the
, given that we still hadn't seen the big disappointing quarters that brought down numbers.
Now it is happening and everyone is shocked, shocked, shocked.
I say, wake up. This is why stocks were down. This is also why stocks should not have run up.
It's the latter move that made no sense, not the former, although the former was way overdone, which is why I express confidence that we will not take out the November or October lows.
: Many thanks to Dan Fitzpatrick for helping me with the ag stocks and
last night on "
Mad Money," even if I disagree with him. ... Fear is back! Doug Kass is so right with
another must-read today ...
At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPMorgan and Eaton.
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