On June 2, Jim Cramer published a checklist of criteria for stocks to rise in a sustainable way. In this post, which appeared on his RealMoney blog earlier today, Cramer checks a second item off the list.
checklist keeps getting granted. The other day I said one of my criteria to get more bullish included some stabilization in the Spanish banking situation, particularly with
( STD). Last night on the way home I said that in order for a second-day follow-up rally, you had to have STD go higher.
Voila, my wish has been granted. The CEO this morning said the interim picture for the continent's largest bank is "brilliant," and he reiterated the year would be good and next year would be at least as good. He also declared the dividend.
The good news is igniting a second-day rally in Europe, which should spill over here -- no pun intended, but the spill stock,
, is climbing, too.
This news from STD can be greeted in two ways. You could say it sounds astoundingly like what Bob Steel told me when he came on "Mad Money" and said the outlook for
was terrific and it wasn't in talks to be acquired when the outlook was terrible, and it
-- and a run was happening at the same time.
Or you could say the bank has passed the ongoing European stress test, has plenty of capital because it just spent $2.5 billion to solidify its hold on Mexico, and has enough assets that earn well overseas to make up for the big spike in Spanish nonperformers caused by the 20% unemployment rate and mass foreclosures. You could say that its bond portfolio, with $30 billion-plus in Spanish government bonds, will do fine because the trillion-dollar bailout makes them whole. You could say it doesn't need to save the billions it pays in dividends because business is so solid. You could argue, how could it spend $2.5 billion on Mexico if it is about to do an equity offering?
I don't know if Alfredo Saenz is Bob Steel. I don't know if the capital is adequate. I
know that if you take this too-big-to-fail bank off the critical list, you get another reason why this market has hit bottom at
Remember the list: Spanish bank stabilization, euro stabilization, Chinese soft landing, passage of financial regulation, unemployment coming down, and the end of the oil spill.
If STD's that safe, frankly implying that
is safe too -- and that bank
too big to fail and can be merged -- that's a huge check mark.
I think the banker sounded darned convincing in his statements.
China's soft landing is upon us. STD stabilizing? Fin reg around the corner and not that onerous because, despite what the papers say, Blanche Lincoln isn't powerful enough to break up the banks. That leaves the euro stabilizing -- I don't know if we have that yet and would feel better the longer it stays at 1.20 against the dollar; the spill -- nothing good there; and unemployment, which is a wait-and-see game.
But the progress is marked. Right now the odds favor the bulls.
Johnson & Johnson
seen as uncooperative with the FDA. Buy
-- the winner!
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Jim Cramer, co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com, writes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's RealMoney and runs the charitable trust portfolio,
. He also participates in video segments on TheStreet.com TV and serves as host of CNBC's "Mad Money" television program.
Mr. Cramer graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where he was president of The Harvard Crimson. He worked as a journalist at the Tallahassee Democrat and the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, covering everything from sports to homicide before moving to New York to help start American Lawyer magazine. After a three-year stint, Mr. Cramer entered Harvard Law School and received his J.D. in 1984. Instead of practicing law, however, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he worked in sales and trading. In 1987, he left Goldman to start his own hedge fund. While he worked at his fund, Mr. Cramer helped start Smart Money for Dow Jones and then, in 1996, he co-founded TheStreet.com, of which he is chairman and where he has served as a columnist and contributor since. In 2000, Mr. Cramer retired from active money management to embrace media full time, including radio and television.
Mr. Cramer is the author of "
," "You Got Screwed," "Jim Cramer's Real Money," "Jim Cramer's Mad Money," "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life" and, most recently, "Jim Cramer's Getting Back to Even." He has written for Time magazine and New York magazine and has been featured on CBS' 60 Minutes, NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams, Meet the Press, Today, The Tonight Show, Late Night and MSNBC's Morning Joe.