Where is the money going to? What are people doing with their spare cash? What the heck is the consumer spending? These are the questions that are plaguing portfolio managers as they follow the money, and right now, it's leading you in shocking and startling directions.

Let me say that the biggest buzz on Wall Street today, the most salient, gut-wrenching situation, is the shocking decline in the business and stock of the American icon Macy's (M) - Get Report . While few people expected Macy's to do well in an environment where the globe seems to be warming in front of our eyes, the sharp sell-off took the market's collective breath away.

As Terry Lundgren, the chairman and CEO, said at the beginning of its his conference call, "We had a very tough quarter. We are clearly disappointed with the 3.6% decline in same-store sales of owned and licensed businesses and the 8% drop in earnings per share. We believe that the retail industry is going through a tough period, that we seem to experience something like this every five to seven years or so, and this one feels familiar in that regard."

Ah hah, here's the rub, it may feel familiar but it isn't. The last time we had a sharp decline in sales, as Lundgren spoke about later in his conference call, was the fall of Lehman. Sales stopped then as the nascent recession morphed into the worst since the 1929 depression.

We are not experiencing that kind of cataclysmic, systemic event right now. In fact, it's the opposite. Less than a week ago, we had the best employment report in ages. We are getting meaningful wage growth, again a first. We have employment below 5%. Things are so strong on the employment front that we can fully expect the Federal Reserve to feel compelled to raise rates when they meet in December. How can they not? If one of their mandates is to promote job growth, then a victory lap rate increase can be justified.

Plus, disposable income is on the increase and the stock market, a terrific repository of savings, is hovering around its highs. Lots of money has been made and taken off the table, too.

Sure there are health care costs that have risen, but the out-of- pocket gasoline and heating bills are dramatically lower than a year ago. It's like a gigantic tax cut. It's that huge for the average American. Let's not forget that for all the talk that the Fed has to raise interest rates, they haven't gone up yet. Credit is getting more plentiful, according to almost all the bank executives I spoke to after their earnings reports.
So, given all of those positives, again, offset only by the negative of higher health insurance costs, which I don't believe is all that much of a game changer, what the heck has happened here?

Why does this matter for us to begin with? Two-thirds of our economy is based on consumer spending. Two-thirds of the dollars of this gigantic growing economy are going somewhere, and if we can figure it out we might be able to nail down some excellent investment opportunities. You see when you get changes like those indicated by the crushing of Macy's sales you can make bets on where profits are going to be better than expected. As I teach every day if you can find out where profits are going to be above expectations you can figure out what stocks might be best to own.

So let's start drilling down.

First of all, we have to figure out if the problem is just with Macy's. Has management "lost it?" Is there something totally awry with Terry Lundgren and his team? I have to say the answer is no. Sure Terry might be off his game right now or else he wouldn't be so disappointed in himself as he clearly is. But it isn't like this great merchant who has done so much to revitalize Macy's has suddenly checked out. I can testify that he is working harder than ever.

Secondly, it is true that the weather's been horrendous, way too warm for department stores like Macy's which are filled with cold weather gear as you would expect in November. It is so warm that the company was abject that it would have to discount aggressively before the holiday to clear inventory. That's just horrendous and could make the next quarter terrible, too.

But let's not quibble, as bad as the weather is there's something else at work here.

I think the consumer's habits have changed and changed not glacially but at lightning speed.

Two years ago Howard Schultz, the visionary who runs Starbucks, famously opined on what could be called the death of the mall and end of shopping as we know it. He talked about how a combination of time constraints, technological breakthroughs, cheaper prices at more convenient venues and experiential cravings magnified by social media were drilling nails into the coffin of the traditional mall shopper. The conference call was a total show-stopper. I listened to it three times because the numbers, while soft that year, didn't seem to fit with the dire thesis Schultz laid out.

Turns out he was just a couple of years too early. I think his predictions are happening now. Take the shoes I wear. These are your basic Rockport Oxford wingtips which I have worn ever since I was a spokesman for Rockport back in the late 1990s. I go through these things like the leather chowed down on by the hapless doomed Donner Party in the early winter of 1846. That's a nod, of course, to headwriter Cliff Mason's birthday party that we will celebrate in absentia this evening. I initially went to the Macy's at the Short Hills Mall to buy these wingtips for $120. But once they wore out I went online to find them. Macy's which has a decent website, featured them for $109. But then I went to Amazon (AMZN) - Get Report , where I am a member of Amazon prime and I found them for $101. Click. And not just click on a desktop. A click on a cellphone. Round the clock shop right from this.

And do you think that there's any wonder that Amazon traded once again to an all time high of 671, tacking on another 11 points on the same day that Macy's stock fell six points back to where it was in February of 2013? I don't think so.

Bricks and mortar just ain't working here. To make matters worse for Macy's by the way, it threw cold water on plans suggested by an activist to monetize some of that real estate into an investment trust, which caused further downside pressure and made you realize that the physical plant for all the attempts to call out other ways that seem to make it competitive with Amazon, like easy pickups or returns, still can't be effectively monetized versus Amazon.

Secondly, differentiation isn't there. Almost nothing that Macy's sells is so different, so special that it can't be gotten somewhere else. It's largely a house of brands with brands that are in too many places; hence, the big declines in all the apparel stocks today. We have too many stores selling too many of the same goods.

Thirdly, homes are rising in value. If a consumer is going to spend at retail, it's clear that spending is going to be directed at improving the value of the home. If you listen to Home Depot'sconference calls, you will know that we are finally to the point in this country where people feel that buying goods to improve the look and feel of homes is now regarded as an investment, not an expense.

Fourthly, when the consumer feels like splurging he or she doesn't do so at the mall He or she does it on a trip. We know, for example, that cruises are booked solid. So are themeparks. The consumer takes the show on the road, not the mall.

Making matters worse far Macy's, the strong dollar is discouraging foreigners from making the pilgrimage to the flagship Herald Square store in Manhattan.

Put it all together and what you have is a secular shift away from the browsing mall shopper to the user of the browser on the cellphone who chooses among the cheapest, most convenient offering.

It happened fast. It's happening now. And sadly, at least for now, it isn't happening at Macy's or pretty much any other old-line department store in these here United States.

At the time of publication, Jim Cramer's charitable trust Action Alerts PLUS held no positions in stocks mentioned.