The housing bill is a huge deal. I don't think people realize how big. Besides saving Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) through the big losses -- perhaps to the Promised Land where there will be stronger fees overwhelming charge-offs sometime in 2010? -- it will help eliminate the overhang of foreclosed homes.
That's bullish for my two faves in a hated industry:
, the two best houses in a real crummy neighborhood. (I like
too on this bill.)
But more important, the question, the bigger question, is, how much is
the bank stocks for this bill? We all know there has to be a price, a time, where these stocks are overinflated. We obviously aren't there yet, in part because even the worst of the banks,
, is passing muster today.
The move in the four fortresses,
Bank of America
, seems so overdone that I have to expect profit-taking -- maybe we will get it on any strength in oil -- but the money keeps flowing in to it.
Some of this move is the short-sell rules, some of it is the better-than-expected net interest margins coupled with the overwhelming charge-offs that in some cases, like
, feel kitchen-sinkish (at last because Sarbanes Oxley has forbidden those, but it looks like the government is at last allowing some forbearance on the Sarbanes front), some of it is housing bill, some of it is the incredible climbing fees and deposit bases, and some of it is historic cheapness-valuation.
There are so many wheels working here that you can understand that this group doesn't want to quit.
This reminds me of the flip-side of oil and gas -- no price they won't sell them. It is so exaggerated as to freak everyone out.
Oh, and one other thing: It is the same as 1990 when we got a turn, but just so you know, the first move stopped when we had moved 50% from the bottom.
We just got there. Just now.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.
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