This post appeared earlier today on RealMoney. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.
Oh please, just another bad employment number, just another reason the
should be more concerned with loosening rather than tightening now that the dollar is soaring and commodities are falling apart. But Bernanke's been silent, and the other Fed governors blather about inflation pressures even though the futures say otherwise.
Today's more important calls are Goldman's downgrade of
to "sell" -- of course there are more writedowns, silly -- and the far more important bill coming due
courtesy of Morgan Stanley's research. We have to be careful with Morgan Stanley's research on the issue, though, because the analyst actually was foolish enough to have a "buy" on this piece of junk before his downgrade. Plus, the analyst is only using a $10 billion to $15 billion writedown estimate. Anyone who has attempted to understand the derivatives issues for Europe is swamped -- it's a moving target -- but I would be shocked if the capital raise needed is less than $20 billion; remember, they have no deposit base.
These calls are really awful for another reason: Both of these reports could have come out two days ago when the stocks were in rally mode. I don't know what happened "in the committee," but it looks like both of these analysts waited until the bears started swarming to throw some raw meat on the table.
Remember my view: AIG is in real trouble, along with
(although doing better than
(although not as worried now that the FDIC is taking over failed banks and keeping the bad loans and selling the deposits),
. I expect Citi to take big writedowns after its German division is sold, and I expect Lehman to announce something before it reports that will keep the firm in business.
But the employment number is strictly par for the course. Gold should be down big, not up. It will go down. And rates will go still lower.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Ever wish you had a chance to meet Jim Cramer, James "Rev Shark" De Porre and Vince Farrell? What would you ask them about their investing strategies or aligning your portfolio for 2009? You'll get your chance at a TSC conference on Oct. 25, in New York City. Please click here to email us for more information.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer),"
click here. Click
here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click
here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click
here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click
here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by
TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon.com purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.