This post appeared yesterday on RealMoney. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.

The drumbeat is picking up. Production decline is slowing down as we see a small rebound in rail traffic and an end to inventory builds. There is a nice housing starts number this morning, the strongest jump since 1990, which was forecasted by a small bump in the stocks of

Lennar

(LEN) - Get Report

,

Toll Brothers

(TOL) - Get Report

and

KB Homes

(KBH) - Get Report

. Huge increase in multifamily units.

Image placeholder title

Retail sales were up more than expected in February, hence the upgrades in

Home Depot

(HD) - Get Report

,

Best Buy

(BBY) - Get Report

and

Target

(TGT) - Get Report

by

Jefferies

. Unemployment claims are not getting worse.

Commodities are rising: Witness the run in copper, manifested by

Freeport McMoRan

(FCX) - Get Report

, and the run in oil, signaled by the bottoms in

Chevron

(CVX) - Get Report

and

Transocean

(RIG) - Get Report

. Bank profits are on the upswing, which is why

Bank of America

(BAC) - Get Report

,

Citigroup

(C) - Get Report

,

Wells Fargo

(WFC) - Get Report

and

General Electric

(GE) - Get Report

are bottoming.

Therefore, the bottom is in. The economy bottomed last month and we are now going to go up. The rally is the logical extension of the bottom and the bottom will become obvious to all shortly. The stimulus is kicking in, lending is picking up, mergers and acquisitions are back and the TALF plan is upon us.

Is it right? Is it all over?

Here's my take: When you see these kinds of stories and data, you can take "Great Depression II" off the table. It first appeared after

Lehman

, but it has been taken off by this data and will stay off if President Obama doesn't press his budget or if Congress tones it down.

But does taking Great Depression II off the table mean that the rally is "real"? That the

Dow

can go to 8,000 or -- the

Doug Kass view -- that the bottom is in?

I want to believe it. However, we then get

Illinois Tool Works

(ITW) - Get Report

yesterday. Today

Nucor

(NUE) - Get Report

releases a statement so dreadful that I feel like we are, once again, experiencing an economy that gets worse every day. It is important to note that you can puzzle over Nucor and say that production is now at 40%. The bottom for all recessions is about that. The Depression was at 25%.

Image placeholder title

Most of us know that the estimates are

way too high

for almost every company -- from steel to oil to housing to aluminum to travel to infrastructure to insurance to tech (with some exceptions like

Taiwan Semi

(TSM) - Get Report

). I am a big believer that you don't get a real rally until estimates are so low that they are easily beaten -- that was the great

Nasdaq

bottom of 2003. You can get a ton of false bottoms, although I think that we got so close to my disaster case of 5,320 a week ago that we

will not

take that out or even get near it now.

This positive chatter will be with us. When you combine it with the great short-squeeze call out of

UBS

(UBS) - Get Report

on the beleaguered

Lincoln

(LNC) - Get Report

,

Prudential

(PRU) - Get Report

,

MetLife

(MET) - Get Report

,

Hartford

(HIG) - Get Report

,

Aflac

(AFL) - Get Report

,

Principal

(PFG) - Get Report

and

Ameriprise

(AMP) - Get Report

, then Doug Kass' big call will be right and the rally will be on again -- a clarion call to go higher.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Freeport McMoRan, Chevron, Wells Fargo and General Electric.

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for

Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer),"

click here. Click

here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click

here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click

here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click

here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by

clicking here.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon.com purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.