Cramer and Bull Brethren Heed Word from Abby Cohen
By James Cramer
It's happening again, as it has so many other times since this bull market began in 1982.
The market rolls over. The talking heads scare the bejesus out of us on television and in print. Asset allocators sell stocks at any price. We begin to read about redemptions and how fund managers are bleeding from their eyeballs. Strategists take money out of the market.
IBM
and
GM
get downgraded. People can't take the pain of being long.
The bull is pronounced dead, from overvaluation, from froth, from greed, from interest rates, from inflation. The obituaries appear everywhere, from the front page of the
USA Today
to the whole issue of
Barron's
. Then somebody stands up, the reigning king or queen of the moment, and says, hey, things aren't so bad.
Tuesday
Abby Joseph Cohen
, the equity strategist from
Goldman Sachs
, said just that. At 2:30 p.m. In an upbeat and considered call to clients.
And the market responded like a coiled spring. Tech and the financials, two groups she highlighted, came roaring back. The people who were selling
Chase
started buying it again. The people who were shorting
Compaq
switched directions and went long. People forgot why they had been so negative, and they started buying.
All of those precious index and stock puts that managers wisely bought for protection or profiteering were suddenly turned into so much ballast. And all of the fund managers we had buried last week came back from the dead, some stronger than ever. Vampire managers.
Suddenly, collectively, we weren't long enough.
Then Wednesday we pick up the paper and
P&G
bids for
Tambrands
.
Alex. Brown
, Tambrands -- oh, is it painful to be short. The companies that ultimately define the stock market, companies like sworn enemies,
Bankers Trust
and Procter & Gamble, who couldn't see eye-to-eye on anything in court or in print, both reach down and buy merchandise from the shelf of the
New York Stock Exchange
. At great prices for them.
Since I got bullish again I have been inundated with calls and emails saying how my view lacked rigor. "You don't have the bonds," says one. "We haven't had the crummy earnings yet," writes another. "You'll be killed if you buy this dip," says a third. "How about that utility average, it hasn't confirmed anything?"
To those critics I say, go buy some stocks and get off my back.
James Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of
The Street.
His fund has a long position in
Chase
and a short position in
IBM
. As for
Tambrands
, Cramer says, "I wish I were long." While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback, emailed to
Jjcramerco@aol.com.