ConocoPhillips' (COP) - Get Report high-volume bounce during Thursday and Friday of last week was completely wiped out on Monday. The stock opened the new week lower and finished the session right at its low. Selling pressure, which in general was fairly light across the major indices, was once again very heavy. For ConocoPhillips investors, more downside appears to be on the way.
Just two weeks ago, ConocoPhillips began the process of testing major support near its Aug. 24 spike low. Despite already having declined nearly 30% from its November peak, this key level was no match for a new distribution wave. Volume surged on Jan. 11 as ConocoPhillips fell to a 5% loss. ConocoPhillips stabilized later in the week, but the damage was done. Support near the stock's 2015 low of $41 was not able to stem the decline.
In the near term, ConocoPhillips is headed for a retest of last week's low near $32.70. Investors should keep a close eye on this level. If the stock can manage to hold near this area, despite the severe downside pressure, a bottom may be at hand. ConocoPhillips is in deeply oversold territory as measured by its daily moving average convergence/divergence indicator. Considering the relentless pressure over the last two weeks, the current oversold reading is likely to become more oversold.
Of note, ConocoPhillips is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 4.
Disclosure: This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.