Over the last two and a half weeks, shares of ConocoPhillips (COP) - Get Report have been trading in a very narrow range. It now appears that the stock reached a downside climax earlier this month and has been building a very solid base near the January low. This setup has put the stock in a very low-risk buy zone with the potential for a meaningful rebound.

In the near term, ConocoPhillips bulls should keep a close eye on the $33-to-$31 area.

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January was a particularly rough month for ConocoPhillips. After a two day gain to open the month the stock was hit with a massive selling wave. Over the next ten sessions COP closed in the red nine times taking out major support along the way. The stock finally found some relief on January 20 when the shares found support near $32.70. COP mounted a slight relief rally from this level but in early February another selling wave hit. From the open on February 4 to the close the next day the stock dropped over 15% on its heaviest back to back volume in years.

Despite this flush further downside was well contained. The stock reached a new 52 week low but fell only slightly below the January low. A base has been forming since but the stock still has an important hurdle ahead. As this process continues COP investors should consider the stock a low risk buy between $33.00 and $31.00. This key support zone includes the stock's January and February lows. A close below the $31.00 level would do considerable damage to the base indicating more construction is needed. On the upside a move past the $35.00 level would be very encouraging for investors. Once past COP has plenty of room to run.

Long COP

Disclosure: This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author was long COP.