You want to believe that we are in the same old bullish tape after listening to Cisco (CSCO) - Get Report. You want to believe that the stock will gap up 5 points because yesterday put to rest a lot of what critics have been complaining about.

Sure, the company talked about component shortages, but that just speaks to strong demand, something that used to be a good thing before everything got turned upside down.

But now you are not so sure.

Jeff Berkowitz

and I, working late last night, tried to lower our own expectations for what we can get out of Cisco, the


and the market in general. We recognize that Cisco came up aces, but we don't know if there is some sort of macro trump out there that will make aces seem paltry.

Same with the


(IBM) - Get Report

call I was on. Gerstner was phenomenally upbeat and on the offensive and we liked everything we heard. Again, though, ace, no trump.

Then we think, hmmm, maybe it will be different today.

Europe's not down. Maybe, something has changed.

Maybe they won't fade the opening (that vicious process we saw yesterday where the market opens up and then proceeds to fall off a cliff). Maybe Cisco will break out.

And then we remember the macro: The


doesn't want Cisco up. Fed doesn't want you making money here. Fed will pummel us if we go higher.

That's the reality. Chambers may be aces, but

Greenspan is trump.

James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of At time of publication, his fund was long Cisco and IBM. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at