You want this BKX index to do better if you are a bull. That's my bet to roll over next week, though, as it bears the brunt of a prospective short-rate increase. Perceived wisdom has it that financials do poorly when the short rates rally and I don't buck perceived wisdom. Doesn't make me any money.
This index looks very sick now, with nary an uptick in the banks or brokers. I have pared this group back big-time and am tempted to buy some puts on some of the more volatile high-dollar financials on any lift. (They are too expensive to go after right now, with all the premiums really juked up.)
The moment you read this, a half-dozen of you will email me about how the days when banks traded off short rates are history.
I will save you some trouble: You bet against this thesis, you will be history. There's $10 a month worth of value.
: Don't forget the show. Slipping my tie on right now. My dad is getting a bunch of people in Philly to complain to
, but I think it is a huge waste of time because if popular will meant anything, we wouldn't have cable to begin with! Hoo-hah!
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at