You know what they don't tell you in the mania handbook? How much money can be made while you are waiting for the bubble to burst.
I just finished two conference calls,
, and I didn't hear anything from these two bellwethers that should be pinpricks.
You will hear plenty of negatives about Yahoo tomorrow. You will hear that page views were not as strong in December as someone would have liked. You will hear that e-commerce could have been even stronger. You will hear that the company was cautious on raising guidance. And all I can say is that I hope it brings out sellers because I don't own any Yahoo and I would like to pick it up some 100 points below where I sold it the other day. Because this was a dyn-o-mite quarter and January is off to a great start.
I am sure that people will pick at the Intel quarter, too. Celeron -- why did they have to name that after a crummy
spinoff? -- wasn't great. Much of the gains were made with gross margin improvement. Revs for the next quarter are a little below what the whisper was looking for. When gains are with revenues, people worry about gross margins. When gains are with gross margins, people worry about revenues. What can I say? People like to worry. I like to buy when these worries seep in. If worry seeps in on Intel, I will buy more. And I will buy personal computer stocks on this if they selloff too. Again, I am long, so take what I say with a grain of salt.
Both of these stocks are tough calls here, nonetheless, because of how far they have run. Intel, at least, can be considered cheap vs. the current 60- and 70- and 80-P/Es guys out there. Yahoo, cheap? I mean, forget it, on a price to minutes watched? On a price to 2007 revenues? But no matter in a mania, and we now all have to stipulate we are in the mania phase. You can make huge amounts of money before people decide that things aren't so great.
In the mania phase, I think all that has to happen to keep stocks going higher is that there can be no REAL disappointment. Mind you, I am not talking about bogus disappointment, like a miss on a phony whisper, but a real miss. We just didn't get one from Yahoo.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of TheStreet.com. At the time of publication, the fund was long Intel, although positions can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending a letter to TheStreet.com at email@example.com.