Some stocks are so tough here. For example, we own Ford (F) - Get Report. You should not own Ford if you think there is going to be a slowdown. But how about if the slowdown is "in the stock" because it is selling at such a low multiple?
Then again, maybe Ford can't make the earnings estimates that make it so cheap. But Ford is the perfect stock to buy if you think that the short rates are just about done going up, because part of Ford's business is lending on short rates. If you can catch a last-tightening move, this stock is the one to play it with. However,
is now cheaper than Ford because of the blown arbitrage surrounding
So what do you do if the pros and the cons are swirling around in your head like spin art at the kids' art fair? You sell some. Because it is just too hard and you look for stocks that are less of a battleground.
There, you have the schematic of the mind of a hedge fund manager. Can you believe how convoluted it is? That's what happens when this business turns as hard as it is now. Don't let anyone tell you this business is easy right now. There are way too many variables for that. Way too many.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Ford. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at