How telling is that weekend table in
The New York Times
which shows how the largest mutual funds are doing? Oh, Doctor, these big funds are getting clobbered. And we know the reason: too much
Procter & Gamble
, not enough tech.
This weekend, some of your email revolved around when tech is going to crash. People wanted to know what will bring it all down. To which I say -- hold it -- I don't want to think about the tech denouement when these large funds are still too underweighted in tech and the
I don't want to jettison tech while
still tells us that he can't analyze it well. (Please, Warren, hire someone who can. It is not that hard. You can find him. Hands off
Matt "Help Save Berkshire Hathaway" Jacobs
I don't want to bolt from tech when so many people who are in index funds haven't even begun to switch to what we all know will be the next big thing: the NDX funds. The prices of tech tell me that we are obviously not early. After these stunning gains no one can be complacent. (See my take something off the table piece this
But these huge fund flows take time to occur. I can't tell you how many people told me at the beginning of the 1990s that the
had become hopelessly overvalued because of indexing.
We then had 10 straight years
of giant inflows to S&P funds. I don't like to be wrong for 10 years. And we are only in year two of the Nasdaq love affair. With just a few weeks left in this quarter, you have to believe that the rush to own tech for these large funds will be terrific. I am using any weakness in tech to buy, not sell, tech stocks.
: Will Buffett's selling of
put heat on Disney management? Remember, Michael Eisner used to pal around with Buffett, even attending the love fest. Somehow it never seems to matter how Eisner does. Maybe some sort of royalty thing... Oh, by the way, irony may not be a form of investing, but it is pretty ironic that the Buffett annual meeting last year was the biggest ever and yet the time to go short was, indeed, right at that meeting. The stock has fallen too far to short, especially considering that Buffett might buy back stock some day.
Not only has
distinguished itself as a company that you can't trust, it has also pulled the dumbest stunt of last year, moving from the Nasdaq to the
New York Stock Exchange
. The stock would probably be at 80 if it had stayed on the Nasdaq.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund had no positions in any stocks mentioned. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at