Buying a Little
I write this fully knowing that in the next half-hour we are going to resolve this market one way or another and I have to admit, I have done a little buying. Retail acts so well and I can make the following case for it:
Does well with a strong dollar;
Benefits from cheap Asian imports; and
Does well when people believe the
Fed
might cut rates.
Huh? What did he say? Did he say the Fed might cut rates?
Look, I read all of what Padinha
and I can tell he is holding his nose somewhere in Jackson Hole right now and saying, "That moron Cramer, can't he read the housing start numbers? Doesn't he see productivity as a problem? Doesn't he know that the price of a
Toll Brothers
(TOL) - Get Report
house in New Jersey just jumped $2,800 or something? What is he smoking?"
To which I say, the main reason the Fed hasn't been able to cut rates is that the stock market has been so strong that it did not want a Japanization, a situation in which stocks go so high that everybody margins and then you go into a multiyear spiral down. That main reason is now out of the picture.
Ford
(F) - Get Report
cuts its prices. Airlines can't raise theirs. Yeah, anecdotally, you've got some ammo for a rate cut. But let's forget about that stuff. If we cut rates we can help
Asia
, which needs help so badly that we can risk it. I think
Alan Greenspan
knows that.
OK, enough macro. Even given the scenario that we are stuck with now, which is the anti-Pangloss scenario, retail still works. Am I making a big bet? Nah, I'm no hero. I know that the wrong technician featured at 3:47 p.m. could wipe out this last little move. But I can craft a thesis for this area, so I am buying it. Period. I would be more inclined to take positions if the financials would start acting better, but now you are asking for the impossible -- without a Fed rate cut.
Random musings
: For what it's worth, the
Trading Goddess
says you can buy stocks that did not exceed their lows from last Wednesday, which in her book includes things like
America Online
(AOL)
, which I remain long.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of TheStreet.com.
At the time of publication the fund was long America Online, though positions can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending a letter to TheStreet.com at
letters@thestreet.com.
